If the Republican conservative base rejects a Mormon for office largely because of his faith, do followers of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints continue their staunchly Republican loyalty anyway? Do they stay home in November? Do some ditch the GOP for independent status, or migrate to the Democratic tent?

"I think that's a real possibility," says Charles Reagan Wilson, director of the University of Mississippi's Center for the Study of Southern Culture. "To feel that kind of rejection from the national party they have allied with, that could well lead to some reassessment of the party."

In the past three decades, Mormons have saddled up with the Republican Party in overwhelming numbers, making Utah an ultra-red state. Though The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints doesn't officially favor a certain party over another, followers are largely Republicans, including most Mormon members of Congress and the faith's most promising national politician - Romney.

While officially just exploring a potential presidential bid, Romney has been jetting across America meeting with Republican groups and shelling out money to local candidates, all preparatory moves for chasing the White House. But the issue of his religion continually dogs Romney, and some observers predict a Mormon could never be elected president.

A Gallup poll in 1999 found that while 79 percent of Americans would vote for a Mormon, 17 percent wouldn't - a significant deficit from which to start a presidential bid. Much of that bias can be traced to the South, where some evangelical groups have little regard for the Mormon faith. Some groups don't consider Mormons to be Christians, and Romney may face a tough crowd.

But could that potential schism convert Mormon Republicans into independents or Democrats?

Political observers say that depends on how nasty the primary contest is for Romney as he seeks the GOP nod.

Brigham Young University's Kelly Patterson, director of the school's Center on the Study of Elections and Democracy, says with the right conditions it's possible the LDS segment could realign, but only if the stars do, too.

Such a shift could happen Patterson says, "If [the primary is] quite heated, if it is visible, there's a highly visible war of words, and then LDS voters [would] have to pick up those signals and then react to it." Even under such circumstances, however, Mormons could stick with the Republican Party and fight from inside for more recognition, he adds.

Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer of Montana sees more of a chance for a Mormon defection from the GOP if Romney gets roughed up over his faith.

"He's probably the most charismatic guy, the guy who's been married to the same woman for 30 some years, has a wonderful family, very successful at business, pulled the Olympics out of the fire in Salt Lake, a moderate on a lot of issues, a guy with some unique qualifications to be president," says Schweitzer, a Catholic. "But, you know, it may well be down South they reject him only because they don't accept his brand of religion."

It's far from clear yet how Romney might fare with Southern voters, a bloc the GOP has needed to win the presidency.

Sen. Orrin Hatch, a Utah Republican and Mormon, made a short-lived bid for president in 2000 but didn't make it past the Iowa caucuses to see how much support he could get in the South.

Hatch says he's not sure the evangelical wing will turn against Romney. If it does, he argues, it could actually help him. "If some of the evangelicals get mean-spirited about it, I believe it will turn up a lot of people and cause a lot of people to support Mitt because they know he is a good person; they know he is a good leader," Hatch says, calling Romney's religion a "great asset."

"People are looking for decency, they are looking for people they can rely on, they are looking for people who live right, they are looking for leaders," Hatch says. "I believe he is everything everyone would want in a political leader. The evangelicals, the one thing they want is to have Republican presidents."

Romney has said he plans at some point in the campaign to give a religion speech À la John F. Kennedy's famous Catholic address convincing voters that if elected president he would not be a conduit for the pope's wishes. Romney's speech likely would be aimed at dispelling fears that his faith is abnormal or outside the mainstream.

"When he does it, if it's done right, it could certainly make a big difference," says David Woodard, the Strom Thurmond chair of government at Clemson University in South Carolina and the author of The New Southern Politics.

Woodard, a pollster as well, says anecdotal evidence suggests Romney may not face such a hard time in the South.

"I'm not saying he's going to sweep through South Carolina," Woodard says. "I may be a lonely voice, but I don't think [his religion is] going to be that big of a deal."

In that case, could the acceptance of Romney strengthen the GOP's lock on Mormons? Utah Republican Party Executive Director Jeff Hartley says LDS faithful have a "pretty solid footing in their political allegiances," but it will be an interesting test to see what happens if Romney's bid takes off.

"While I think LDS Democrats would cross over in droves to vote for Romney in particular, I personally doubt LDS Democrats would convert wholesale to the Republican Party - though if Romney wins and is an outstanding president he may convert many to the Republican fold," Hartley says.

Democratic leaders, though, see an opportunity in Romney's bid to begin untying the Mormon-Republican knot.

State Party Chairman Wayne Holland, who has traveled frequently through the South in his role as a union leader, says Romney will face a powerful anti-Mormon sentiment in the region.

"I'm thinking [Mormons are] going to get pretty disgusted with what I believe they'll do to Romney," Holland says. He predicts some in the party will be "tearing Romney apart because of his faith." He adds that some Mormon faithful may finally start questioning whether the Republican Party isn't "too beholden to the group that just can't jibe with the LDS faith."

tburr@sltrib.com

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Tribune reporter Matt Canham contributed to this story.