But the potential for a pandemic is no laughing matter to Leavitt, the secretary of Health and Human Services.

He and other government officials were in Layton on Friday to discuss what steps the state and residents need to take to prepare for a flu pandemic.

"Pandemics happen," Leavitt said. "Pandemics are a part of the biologic facts of life. We may be the first generation to know it is coming and have the ability to do something about it."

If an influenza pandemic with the severity of the 1918 outbreak strikes, 90 million people nationwide could become sick, 45 million could be hospitalized and 2 million could die, said Julie Gerberding, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In Utah, 800,000 people could be infected, with 8,000 needing ventilators and 4,000 dying.

"We know the state of Utah does not have that many ventilator hospital beds at one time," she said.

The state needs to develop a strategy to avoid that surge, she added, urging Utahns to practice respiratory etiquette and diligently wash their hands.

Utah has a plan that is being updated regularly, but it still lacks many specifics. Decisions yet to be made include: how to deliver vaccine, whether to create an antiviral stockpile for the state, how to provide health care when clinics and hospitals are overburdened and how to maintain critical community services, such as police and fire, transportation, water and food and basic sanitation when job absenteeism rates could soar as high as 25 percent.

The H5N1 avian influenza strain stirring worldwide anxiety has led to 186 human illnesses and 105 deaths in Asia and the Middle East. Most of those affected are poultry handlers.

To speed the development of new vaccines, President Bush has unveiled a $7 billion strategy to help prevent a killer flu.

The state agriculture department is watching for bird flu in the poultry industry and in wild birds. In 1995, a different strain of avian influenza broke out among Utah poultry, a problem likely caused by birds migrating north from Mexico.

The health of commercial flocsks is closely monitored by veterinarians. Owners of backyard flocks are asked to contact the state if several birds mysteriously die.

Leavitt urged all residents to store food and water and to assemble a first aid kit. Even if Utah dodges an influenza pandemic, he said preparations could prove helpful in the case of earthquakes, bioterrorism attacks or a nuclear event.

"Is this Y2K or another thing to have to worry about that never happens?" he said. "Well, I hope so. But we've got to think about the unthinkable."

chamilton@sltrib.com