Speculating about the possibility of avian flu reaching Utah, state officials on Thursday released their pandemic preparedness plan, which is aimed at minimizing serious illness, social disruption and economic loss.

"We don't know if the bird flu will ever come to Utah," Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. said at a news conference. "What we do know is that by planning and preparing for such threats we can save lives."

The report will be updated regularly and still needs many specifics. Decisions yet to be made include: how to deliver vaccine; whether to create an antiviral stockpile for the state; how to provide health care when clinics and hospitals are overburdened; and how to maintain critical community services, such as police and fire, transportation, water and food and basic sanitation when job absenteeism rates could soar as high as 25 percent.

The H5N1 avian influenza strain stirring worldwide anxiety has led to 122 human illnesses and 62 deaths in Asia. Most of the people affected are poultry handlers.

There is no vaccine for the strain. To speed the development of new vaccines, President Bush unveiled a $7 billion strategy Tuesday to help prevent a killer flu.

"We've been working on our plan for over a year, and now we'll use the national plan to update and expand our planning and preparation," said David Sundwall, executive director of the Utah Department of Health.

The health department, the Utah Department of Agriculture and Food and other state agencies will work with the World Health Organization and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, which is headed by former Utah Gov. Mike Leavitt, in monitoring the deadly strain.

In developing Utah's plan, officials made several assumptions. First, Utah may have no warning, or as much as a three-month warning, before the arrival of the pandemic virus within the state's borders. No vaccine would be available until six to eight months after the onset of the pandemic.

Once a vaccine were to become available, it would take five months to produce an adequate supply for the entire U.S. population. People would need two doses administered 30 days apart for immunity.

The federal government would purchase the first 20 percent of vaccine produced and distribute it to states in waves. In Utah, 240,000 people would receive the first batch of vaccine from the initial federal supply, which is roughly 10 percent of the state's population.

The pandemic, as is true of most diseases, likely would disproportionately affect vulnerable groups, such as the poor, uninsured, minorities and the disabled. Officials are addressing how to reach those populations while planning and want to ensure the information would be available in English, Spanish and other languages spoken in the Beehive State.

In worst-case scenarios, state and local emergency management agencies and hospitals would be urged to activate their emergency response systems. Coroners and funeral directors also would be encouraged to prepare for increases in the number of dead.

In the future, officials plan to identify the location of overflow clinics and create quarantine and travel restriction guidelines.

"Hospitals may not be the best place for people with the flu because there are a lot of sick people who could get infected, unless people go into respiratory failure," Sundwall said.

In the meantime, the agriculture department and the Division of Wildlife Services are monitoring commercial poultry and wild fowl and investigating bird deaths at laboratories in Nephi and Logan.

Leonard Blackham, commissioner of the agriculture department, said he believes the state is as prepared as it can be. But "there's no guarantee," he said. "We're dealing with nature here."

chamilton@sltrib.com

To prepare for pandemic:

Put together an emergency kit in case you are confined to your home for an extended period of time.

Collect:

* Food for humans and animals

* Water

* First-aid supplies

* Any medication you take on a regular basis

Source: Department of Health

To prevent the spread of flu:

* Get a flu shot. To find areas where shots are offered, visit http://www.health.utah.gov or call the Immunization Hotline at 1-800-275-0659.

* Cover your mouth and nose when you cough or sneeze.

* Wash your hands frequently with soap and hot water.

* Stay home when you are sick.

* Ask for a mask at health care offices or hospitals if you have fever, cough.

Source: Utah Department of Health