Back in 1993, he knocked off an incumbent Sandy mayor and a City Council member in his first foray into politics.

"I was the unknown," Dolan recalls.

Today, nearly 12 years later, Dolan remains the tenured mayor. He boasts name recognition, a bulging campaign cache and deep-rooted ties in the Republican Party and on Utah's Capitol Hill. Oh, and he has been untouchable at the polls.

Then along comes another political unknown, Gary T. Forbush. He racks up 40 percent in last week's primary to advance to the Nov. 8 finale and says he now is within striking distance of Sandy's powerful mayor.

Suddenly, residents are asking a question that hasn't been seriously broached in years: Can this nobody beat Dolan?

The challenger is determined. "I'm here to win," Forbush says.

It won't be easy.

Although Dolan doesn't make headlines as often as Salt Lake City Mayor Rocky Anderson or Ogden Mayor Matthew Godfrey, the Sandy mayor carries considerable cachet with residents and Utah's most powerful decision-makers. He is known more for making behind-the-scene deals (think of Sandy's late emergence as a front-runner for a Major League Soccer stadium and its funding victory for expansion of parking facilities at South Towne Expo Center).

Dolan also holds a double-digit lead.

"If I can win by 14 percent," the mayor asks, "how greedy do you have to be?"

So Dolan has the edge: He has the name. He has the proven support. He has the money.

But there is a wild card: the referendum on a planned development of the gravel pit. Dolan backs the project; Forbush doesn't.

The presence of that polarizing issue on the ballot could swing the vote to either candidate, says Matthew Burbank, an associate professor of political science at the University of Utah.

"It may attract more people to come out and vote against [Dolan]."

The polls: Dolan's closest race was his first.

In 1993, he squeaked into the mayor's seat by collecting 51 percent of the vote. He topped then-City Councilman Ken Prince by just 207 votes. The pair had knocked off incumbent Mayor Larry Smith in the primary.

So how did Dolan pull off the upset?

"Good looks," he jokes.

In reality, Dolan prevailed the old-fashioned way. He knocked on doors and talked to voters at every opportunity.

"I did grass-roots campaigning," he recalls. "I was active."

Since that time, Dolan has morphÂed from the biblical David to a GOP Goliath.

In 1997, he won by 46 percentage points. In a 2001 primary, he bested his closest competitor by 25 percentage points. And, in November 2001, Dolan cruised to a 16-point victory, easily outpacing a sitting legislator.

In Tuesday's primary, Dolan eclipsed Forbush 54 percent to 40 percent. A third candidate, S. Drake Meyer, pulled in the remaining 6 percent.

Forbush maintains he can bridge that 14-point gap in the next four weeks.

"I hope the momentum continues," he says. "A lot of people are saying they want change."

Dolan disagrees.

"I don't think I've accumulated a lot of enemies," he says. "I'm running on my record of 12 years of great accomplishments."

Money, money, money: If money wins elections, this race already is over.

Here's the score, according to the candidates' latest disclosure statements: Dolan, $67,055; Forbush, $3,200.

That edge means the mayor can reach more voters with more direct mailings and put up more signs in more places all over Sandy.

Dolan maintains the money is a tangible sign that people approve of his job performance.

Forbush says he wasn't "focused on the money," because he needed to get past the primary. Now that he is in the final runoff, he knows he needs to hit up supporters for cash.

"I've got to raise money," he says.

Some observers expected Forbush to already have scores of small donations from opponents of the gravel-pit development. After all, he is a member of Save Our Communities, the grass-roots group that collected 6,425 signatures and went to the Utah Supreme Court to force the referendum.

Instead, Forbush has only five donations, including $100 from himself. Even SOC isn't endorsing Forbush - at least officially - after the group opted to stay on the sidelines in the mayor's race.

"Save Our Communities has not publicly endorsed any candidate," explains SOC spokeswoman Robyn Bagley. "However, we are fully aware of what candidates support" the referendum.

The wild card: Dolan says he spotted a trend in the primary results: Forbush's support comes mainly from around the gravel pit.

"Mr. Forbush has as much support as he can draw out," Dolan says.

Not so, the challenger retorts.

Forbush believes the 6,425 registered voters who signed the referendum petitions will vote for him. That total is just shy of the number Dolan snagged in his 2001 re-election.

But Dolan already may have reached the magic number.

"The key is he bridged 50 percent" in the primary, explains Quin Monson, assistant director of Brigham Young University's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. "Unless there is some reason his supporters are going to abandon him or that there is going to be a substantial change in turnout, . . . [a Dolan defeat] would be surprising."

But, as the U.'s Burbank notes, the referendum could provide that substantial change.

"The most likely impact is it would affect turnout," he says.

And that could hurt Dolan.

"If they are [at the ballot box] to vote for the referendum, it's easy for them to vote against Dolan," Burbank says.

Of course, the inverse could happen as well. Residents and business owners who agree with Dolan on the gravel-pit development could show up in force, Burbank says.

Dolan insists the gravel pit isn't the biggest concern for residents.

"There are so many more day-to-day issues," he says, such as jobs, taxes and city services,

Forbush agrees. To win, he says, he has to convince voters that he is not a single-issue candidate.

"We've got to target the right people," he says, "and they're not all around the gravel pit."

jsantini@sltrib.com