Salt Lake Tribune
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As surplus swells, the shopping list grows
This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2005, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.

Utah economists - armchair and professional - are starting to see an unmistakable pattern in the state's growing revenues.

Which means state lawmakers and taxpayers are starting to talk of how to spend the surplus.

The latest State Tax Commission revenue summary released Tuesday shows Utah's estimated surplus has expanded to more than $162 million from $112 million reported last month. That's above and beyond a $235 million surplus and $370 million in projected growth state leaders built into the 2005 budget in March.

"It's starting to look like a trend," said Senate President John Valentine. "It's been nothing but good news."

A Salt Lake Tribune poll last week found the vast majority of 400 Utahns surveyed - 60 percent - want lawmakers to spend the windfall on education. Fourteen percent are looking for a tax refund. About 13 percent say state leaders should stash the cash into the rainy-day fund. And 8 percent say the money should pay for roads and highways.

The numbers, based on April economic activity, show state revenues up 13 percent, compared with the 8 percent growth state economists predicted last February. The fiscal year ends June 30. Tax Commission Chief Economist Douglas Macdonald said the figures are "as good as it gets."

State sales tax collections are up $34 million this year. Last month alone, collections were up 15 percent from state economists' projections. Individual income tax collections grew 17 percent, bringing the year-to-date total to $95 million. As expected, motor fuel taxes were down 3 percent in April due to the increased cost of gasoline.

Despite the bulging state coffers, Governor's Office of Planning and Budget Director Richard Ellis urges caution. He notes that some of the growth comes from final income tax payments - one-time state revenue generated when Utahns sell businesses or investments. That money might not be there next year.

"I'm thinking about 2007," Ellis said. "We're at the point where we'll start to see the economy level out."

Whether the economy flattens, Valentine said, Utahns will get their wish. Because much of the surplus comes from corporate and individual income taxes, which are earmarked for education, Utah schools will get most of the surplus - more than $101 million.

But lawmakers probably won't talk seriously about a tax refund or cut until state economists release projections for the 2007 fiscal year in December or January, Valentine said.

"We want to make certain that these revenues are going to continue to come in in future years before we talk about permanent cuts," Valentine said. "The worst possible thing we could do would be to make a general tax cut and then the next year make a general tax increase."

By the numbers

* Growth of state surplus reported this month: $50 million.

* Revenues for this year : State sales tax collections up $34 million.

Individual income tax collections up $95 million.

Corporate franchise tax up $6 million.

Oil and gas leases up $20 million.

Capitol buzzes with talk of how to spend the state's big revenue windfall
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