"It is virtually impossible for Utah not to gain a fourth seat," said Robert Spendlove, manager of the state's Demographic and Economic Analysis Office. By "virtually impossible," he means there always is a small chance that census projections are grossly inaccurate or that Congress changes its apportionment formula drastically.
Utah is expected to grow faster than 45 other states during the next 25 years, according to the Census Bureau. State projections already have Utah surpassing the necessary population to add a representative. But census projections have had Utah a little short.
Utah needs to have 2,465,593 residents by 2010 to gain a seat, using the formula in place during the 2000 Census. The Census Bureau expects Utah to have a population nearing 2,600,000 by 2010.
"Utah deserves to have a fourth seat now, but the prospect of another seat is very encouraging and will be very important to our posture on the national stage," said Jason Chaffetz, the governor's chief of staff. "Every seat and every vote counts."
State officials argue that Utah was robbed of a fourth seat by faulty counting techniques in 2000, though they lost repeated legal challenges costing taxpayers $1.2 million. The seat ultimately went to North Carolina by a slim margin.
A new seat would give Utah more sway in national debates, said Rep. Chris Cannon, who represents Utah's 3rd Congressional District and sits on the Government Reform and Oversight Committee, which oversees the Census Bureau. And the growth in surrounding states, like Nevada, should net the West more House seats.
"We have problems in the West that they don't have in the East. And part of those problems are due to the growth," said Cannon, who named water and energy as examples.
Adding a representative will require the state Legislature to draw new districts. Following the 2000 Census, Republican lawmakers broke up the mostly urban 2nd Congressional District held by Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson, though the move didn't doom Matheson's re-election plans as Republicans had hoped. Salt Lake County is now split between all three congressional districts, giving every lawmaker a mix of urban and rural constituents.
Cannon, for one, wants to keep the urban/rural split when the districts are redrafted "so we all have the same issues."
Democratic Party Chairman Donald Dunn said that is "crazy."
"The interests in Salt Lake County are very different than in Washington County," he said.
Dunn would prefer something similar to the plan Republican lawmakers drafted after the last census, just in case they won their battle for a fourth seat. That contingency plan created a district solely in Salt Lake County.
Democrats will continue their push to take the politics out of redistricting as the 2010 Census nears.
They want to create a bipartisan commission to draft the districts, but so far Republicans have rejected that plan.
mcanham@sltrib.com
---
Tribune reporter Thomas Burr contributed to this article.
