"I doubt that these noncandidate groups can sustain the level of spending they had in 2004," Magleby said in releasing a new survey by the Brigham Young University Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at the National Press Club Thursday. "However, I think they will treat 2006 as an opportunity to refine their techniques in key U.S. Senate races."
BYU researchers joined with the nonpartisan Center for Public Integrity to determine the extent and effectiveness of 527 groups, named after a section of U.S. tax code that authorizes the creation of tax-exempt organizations to influence political races without limits on contributions or spending, as long as there is no coordination with a candidate's campaign.
"Hit-and-run 527 committees have been operating on the fringes of American politics for at least the last three election cycles," said Charles Lewis, director of the Center for Public Integrity. "But now, they have clearly arrived as significant forces in our electoral process."
The 527 groups collected $534 million in the 2004 election and spent that and more leftover from previous election cycles in attempting to influence the outcome of the presidential race, congressional campaigns and ballot initiatives. One of the most effective campaigns was the Swift Boat Veterans' television ads.
BYU researchers surveyed 1,523 voters nationwide in September and found that 76 percent referred to issues advanced by the Swift Boat campaign when asked about Democratic challenger Sen. John Kerry's military service.
"The Swift Boat Veterans' attack was masterful," said Magleby. "This group delivered a message that the Bush campaign and the RNC [Republican National Committee] could not, and Bush got the best of both worlds because he could decry 527s and benefit from their activities at the same time."
Some members of Congress want 527s to be outlawed or regulated in the same way that political action committees are, by the Federal Election Commission. Campaign finance reformer Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., is expected to reintroduce legislation in the new Congress that would require 527s to register as political action committees and comply with contribution limits.
