But Kirkman acknowledges he increasingly questions whether that will happen. Subdivisions are sprouting up all around his property and traffic has picked up appreciably. The real estate market has discovered the pastoral lands between Interstate 15 and the Great Salt Lake in Davis and Weber counties, and it has arrived with a vengeance.

"It's getting crowded," says Kirkman. "For years we drove cattle on the roads from pasture to pasture, but it's getting harder to do that because of all the homes. Some people are understanding, but others have a hard time with it. They want to live in the country, but they're moving the city out here with them.

"When I'm gone, I hope my kid can keep on farming," he adds. "But he's sitting on a lot of dollars here. If it gets to the point that he can't feed his family, that's when he'll have to do something else."

Syracuse. Farr West. Clinton. West Haven. West Point. Throw them in the hopper with locales such as Herriman, Eagle Mountain and Saratoga Springs, where the quest for affordable housing and bucolic settings have created the Wasatch Front version of exurbia.

But then toss in another factor - a large body of water with surrounding uplands, wetlands and millions of migratory birds.

All of the growth on the flat, west plains of Davis and Weber counties is putting undeniable pressure on the Great Salt Lake. And advocates of the lake are correspondingly concerned, if not alarmed.

"There is a wonderful accommodation for all of these new homes, but with these newer suburbs, there is sort of a wacky disconnection from city centers," says Lynn de Freitas, president of Friends of Great Salt Lake. "It seems to be an unfortunate trend that is happening across the nation, and now we're seeing it in our backyard. The question is, can we grow and protect our wild habitats? I think the jury is still out."

In the most recent four-year period (2000-2003), West Haven grew by 26 percent, Farr West 24 percent and Clinton by 21 percent. And this is coming off a decade, the 1990s, in which all of these areas and their neighbors experienced strong double-digit growth.

"As the eastern parts of Davis and Weber counties are becoming developed and built out, you're seeing people migrate to where they can build a nice house on a nice piece of land for an affordable price," says Robert Spendlove, deputy director of the Governor's Office of Planning and Budget.

Low interest rates have kept the housing market booming. And almost nowhere is the rumble louder than in Syracuse. Located west of Clearfield, a stone's throw from the employment hubs of Hill Air Force Base and Freeport Center, the city's population has increased by more than 50 percent since the 2000 census, and is pushing nearly 20,000 today. In 1990, that figure was less than 5,000.

"Land is cheaper out here than on the east bench," says Syracuse planner Rodger Worthen, "but we also offer a good mix of housing - from entry-level to higher-end developments. We've also got a good demographic mix. We're close to Hill and Freeport Center, and still within a pretty easy commute of downtown Salt Lake City."

Some communities already have taken steps to protect the shorelands of the Great Salt Lake. The most concerted approach is occurring in Davis County, where a shorelands plan has been adopted by most of the municipalities that border the lake. It's central tenet: to create land-use policies that encourage smart development and open space, while preserving a buffer between sprouting subdivisions and the lake shore.

Weber County has yet to establish a comparable, countywide shorelands plan - development hasn't yet reached the frenzied level occurring in Davis County - but there is a building moratorium on lands below 4,215 feet of elevation, the high-water mark the Great Salt Lake reached in early 1980s.

A central aspect of Davis County's shorelands plan is transfer development rights, a market-oriented planning concept that encourages open-space preservation along with development.

Under the transfer development rights (TDR) approach, a property owner in a proposed conservation area sells his or her development rights to another property owner with immediately developable land. The incentive for the "sender" is an immediate cash-out, while retaining stewardship of the property. The prize for the "receiving" landowner: permission to build at higher densities - and thus at a higher profit - than current zoning allows.

Ironically, says Envision Utah planner Tim Watkins, "the high rate of growth could actually help drive the preservation of critical lands through a TDR program, which demands a strong development market. And you usually find that in the higher growth areas.

"So communities have a choice," he adds. "They can have more compact development in exchange for shoreland preservation. But if that's the case, money must be found to purchase those rights and allow property owners to exercise their rights in preserving sensitive areas."

Farmers like Kirkman are interested in the transfer development rights concept. With the recent defeat of Initiative 1, the open-space ballot measure, it may be the only realistic alternative left to stave off urban encroachment and keep them in the farming business.

"If they got a hold of us and were fair with us and say, let's keep this land as open space, I think a lot of us would be interested. I think a lot of us would do it," says Kirkman.

Great Salt Lake advocate de Freitas also believes the time is ripe to begin addressing these issues in earnest.

"Right now, we're in a six-year drought and the lake level is low," she says. "But when we recall the high lake level of the 1980s, when we talk about the impacts to uplands and wetlands and those water levels go up, the wildlife needs a place to go. When there are chain link-fences and dogs, you're really limiting their nesting habits. It's really a never-ending conversation."

And only time will tell if the conversation has a happy ending.

"Whether or not enough is being done, it's just a fact that the growth out there exploded and caught some folks off guard," says Dave Livermore, Utah director of the Nature Conservancy, which owns 4,000 acres and 12 miles of Great Salt Lake shoreline west of Layton. "It's hard to have the foresight to look down the road 50 years and figure out what things are going to look like, but that's exactly what's needed now. It's a unique environment."

jbaird@sltrib.com