With four main candidates vying for the seat, the winner could prevail with 40 percent, 35 percent, even (statistically) 26 percent of the vote. Few observers expect the victor to capture an outright majority.

Whoever emerges will have a charge to clean up county government after a string of headline-grabbing scandals. But, after that, will the lack of a mandate hamper the next mayor's ability to govern and keep any election-year promises?

"Can the person govern? Well, yes. The adverb may be 'badly,' " says Tim Chambless, a political science professor at the University of Utah, somewhat tongue-in-cheek.

The post-scandal front-runner, Democrat Peter Corroon, acknowledges that the next mayor may have to reach out to the opposing side to be effective. That's his plan and his promise.

"We're going to run a bipartisan administration - the best people for the job," he says.

But the candidates aren't as worried about victory percentages as they are victory itself.

Right now, those percentages keep shifting, according to a poll conducted Thursday by Dan Jones & Associates for the Deseret Morning News and KSL-TV.

Corroon has 34 percent, down from last week's 49 percent (News poll) and 41 percent (Salt Lake Tribune poll).

Ellis Ivory - who is running as a write-in candidate with the official backing of the Republican Party - has rocketed to 32 percent just two days after joining the race, according to the latest News survey.

Merrill Cook, a former GOP congressman running unaffiliated this time, has plunged to 6 percent, the News poll shows, and trails embattled incumbent Nancy Workman, who is at 10 percent. Some 16 percent remain undecided.

Poll respondents heard a lengthy introduction about the latest developments in the race before they gave their voting preference. They were told the central committee of the Salt Lake County Republican Party withdrew its endorsement of Workman and now supports Ivory. That approach raised concerns Friday among some pundits about the validity of the numbers.

County Councilman Joe Hatch, a Democrat who supports Corroon, says the question was "outrageously awful" and comes close to a "push poll" - designed to shape rather than measure public opinion.

Jones says his media clients asked for the introduction, and he noted the question was tested with voters. "It's very difficult to educate without maybe biasing. We hope that we didn't."

Regardless, many believe Ivory's support will fall on Election Day because the write-in process is seen as cumbersome by voters.

"Giving an answer to a poll question is much easier than writing in a candidate," says Kelly Patterson, director of Brigham Young University's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy.

Ivory, who officially filed his write-in candidacy Friday, believes he will reach 50 percent - a daunting task considering his name won't be on the ballot. But even a lesser number will give him a mandate, he says.

"The kind of support and enthusiasm I'm receiving is so far beyond the average, I would have more support in governing than any mayor elected in this county," Ivory says.

Chambless says Utah's history proves leaders can set the agenda even if they don't capture a majority. Frank Moss was elected U.S. senator in 1958 with 37 percent of the vote and went on to win two more terms. In 1992, Mike Leavitt started the first of his three terms as governor with 43 percent of the vote.

The best example recently, Chambless notes, may be President Bush, who won the the electoral vote in 2000 but lost the popular vote.

Norm Bangerter snared a second term as governor in 1988 with 40 percent of the vote. He says the percentage doesn't matter; the personality of the elected official does.

"I didn't feel a bit impaired," he says. "The thing that matters is who it is and [his or her willingness to] belly up to the bar and do what needs to be done."

The County Council plays an important role, too. Jones says the lack of majority support could be used against the mayoral winner if he or she pushes something council members don't like.

Either way, the new mayor will face an empowered County Council.

Hatch and council colleague David Wilde, a Republican, say the part-time council members will want to be more involved in light of the recent scandals.

"There's a feeling that maybe we have not been as assertive as we should have been over these last four years," Wilde says.

"You're going to see a shift of power away from the executive and more to the bureaucracy and the council," Hatch says.

hmay@sltrib.com

Tribune reporter Thomas Burr contributed to this story.