A new Salt Lake Tribune poll shows the constitutional measure to define marriage, Amendment 3, garnering 62 percent support, with opponents trailing at just under 27 percent and only 9 percent undecided. Meanwhile, Initiative 1, which calls for a $150 million bond for the purchase of open space and other critical lands, is a virtual dead heat, with 31 percent supporting it, 33 percent against and 35 percent undecided.
The statewide survey of 1,200 registered or likely voters, conducted between Sept. 24-29, has a plus/minus margin of error of 2.8 percent.
The backing for Amendment 3 comes as no real surprise in conservative Utah, nor will it shock many that the amendment seems to split state residents along political lines - 3-in-4 likely Republican voters say they will vote for the amendment, while two-thirds of Democrats say they won't. And the vast majority of LDS voters - 73 percent - plan to cast ballots in favor of the constitutional change, but just 40 percent of Catholics and Protestants said they support it.
Amendment supporters Sen. Chris Buttars, R-West Jordan, and Utah Eagle Forum Director Gayle Ruzicka could not be reached for comment Friday.
But Scott McCoy, director of the anti-Amendment 3 group known as the Don't Amend Alliance, figures there still is wiggle room in the electorate. He holds out hope that education about the legal questions posed by the amendment's second section - which will block the state from giving legal status to other unions - will sway Utah voters.
"When it really comes down to it, people don't make decisions about initiatives and amendments until the last two weeks of the campaign. Our internal polling shows that if and when people get the messages about Amendment 3, their view of the amendment changes radically," McCoy said. "We still have a good opportunity to get that message out, communicate with people and move them."
That echoes the stance of Amanda Smith, president of Utahns for Clean Water, Clean Air and Quality Growth. While surprised by the latest poll results - earlier surveys showed Initiative 1 leading by comfortable margins - she says there is still plenty of time to convert opponents and sway the undecided.
The initiative, which calls for the bond to be paid off over 10 years at a cost of 0.05 percent - about $14 per year for the average Utah family - has wider support among Democrats (43 percent) and independents (38 percent) than Republicans (26 percent).
Attempts to reach a pair of Initiative 1 opponents, the Utah Taxpayers Association and the Farm Bureau of Utah, were unsuccessful Friday.
