Utahns put Republican President Bush ahead of Democrat John Kerry, 69 percent to 21 percent, according to a statewide poll of 900 likely voters commissioned by The Salt Lake Tribune. "Likely" is defined as registered voters who intend to vote.

That's a 2-point jump for Bush who grabbed about 67 percent of the Utah vote in 2000. And for Kerry, it's a 5 point fall from his predecessor, Democratic nominee and then-Vice President Al Gore, who collected 26 percent.

The poll has a 3 percent margin of error. And some pundits say Kerry will gain ground between now and Nov. 2 as he picks up some of the 5 percent of Utah's undecided voters.

If that happens, 2004 will be a near-mirror of the 2000 presidential election.

But no matter how the race shakes out, Bush's strong support underscores two well-documented political realities, says Kelly Patterson, director of the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University.

l Utah is a Republican state. In 1964, President Lyndon Johnson was the last Democratic presidential nominee to win the state.

l And the more polarizing a race, the more "tenaciously" party loyalists cling to their candidate.

In other words, says Patterson, Bush heads into the first presidential debate tonight with a strong lead over Kerry not despite, but because of critics who say he ignored domestic issues and misled the United States to war with Iraq.

It's called "selective perception," said another BYU political scientist, Quin Monson.

And the televised debates aren't bound to change those perceptions much, Monson says. "Bush supporters will think Bush won and Kerry supporters will think Kerry won."

Utah State University political science professor Michael Lyons is less pessimistic about Kerry's chances of parlaying the debate into more Utah support.

Because Utah isn't a battleground state, Kerry is unknown to much of the electorate, says Lyons. "Tonight Kerry has his first clear opportunity to present himself unfiltered."

Bush has succeeded in painting Kerry "an effete intellectual," Lyons says. "The hard-core Republicans will stick to that no matter what happens. But moderates, including Republicans, realize this is politics, are waiting to see how Kerry performs."

Lyons suspects that Kerry will pick up undecided voters along with some of the 2.5 percent who today support Independent candidate Ralph Nader.

He doubts Bush's bedrock of support will spill over into Utah's congressional races or the battle for governor.

Republicans have failed to tie 2nd Congressional District candidate Jim Matheson and his brother, gubernatorial hopeful Scott Matheson Jr., to the Democratic party nationally or to Kerry, says Lyons.

Patterson agrees, noting, "In an average election year, the coattail effect is worth only a couple of percentage points."