The Washington, D.C.-based Cook Political Report last month upgraded Utah Rep. Jim Matheson's chances for re-election - moving the 2nd Congressional District from its "toss-up" category to "lean Democratic." Recent polls show Matheson leading his Republican challenger by nearly 30 points.

And despite a fund-raising lunch with Vice President Dick Cheney last month, money is hard to come by.

Sounds like 2002.

Swallow says two years ago he started out some 30 points behind but nearly upset Matheson, losing by just 1,600 votes in a district that stretches from Salt Lake City neighborhoods to Washington County.

Cook Political Report House Editor Amy Walter acknowledges the race setup looks a lot like that near-upset.

But, Walter says, several factors this year work against Swallow.

His primary fight with challenger Tim Bridgewater was nasty and expensive. Despite national interest in the race, Swallow has to compete with President Bush and Republican incumbents in Congress for party resources and special-interest advertising dollars. While Matheson has $1 million to spend, Swallow's pre-primary stash lingered at $220,000. New campaign finance rules will limit the help Swallow gets from the party.

And Matheson is running this time as a second-term incumbent.

"Bottom line: John Swallow did lose last time," Walter said. "Challengers come back and sort of assume they start from where the last race ended. They're still starting from scratch."

The Cook Political Report is a nonpartisan publication watched by Washington insiders as a harbinger of election outcomes.

University of Utah Hinckley Institute of Politics Director Ron Hrebenar said virtually every member of Congress keeps a copy in the office.

"It's one of the most respected publications in Washington," Hrebenar said.

Taken along with recent poll numbers, Walter's analysis predicts Swallow's task is daunting.

A Dan Jones poll last month showed Matheson ahead of Swallow, 58 percent to 29 percent. Another Jones poll found more than two-thirds of Republicans in the district approve of Matheson's performance.

Jones agrees with Walter's early assessment of the numbers.

"Once a congressman gets elected, it's very difficult to defeat them," Jones said. Jones is not polling for either candidate.

Matheson isn't assuming too much from his district's shift in the report. "This recognition shows that all the hard work I've done putting Utah above partisan politics is paying off," he said in a prepared statement. But, Matheson added, "I don't take anything for granted. I will continue to wage an aggressive campaign in the coming weeks."

Utah Democratic Party Chairman Donald Dunn said, "This isn't giving anyone a sigh of relief. It's still a tough district."

While the report analysis could boost Matheson's campaign, it could slow Swallow's efforts to raise money.

"Donors look at the Cook Report. It really helps dry up funds," Jones said. "[Political Action Committees] want to put their blankets on a winning horse."

But the former legislator is determined. Swallow did not return calls Thursday. But his stump speeches routinely tout his climb from behind to nearly defeat Matheson two years ago. He blames the neglect of the National Republican Committee and a lack of money for his failure to win. Despite prognostications about the outcome, this year, he figures, will be different.

"Sometimes, it takes more than once with an incumbent," Swallow said at that Cheney lunch - which raised about $80,000 - last month. "We weren't quite well-enough known. This time, we're closer to the finish line."

And Walter cautions that the 2004 campaign still is young; Matheson still is running in a Republican district.

"It's always going to be a tightrope for Matheson," she said. "He's not going to win this race with 56 percent. A landslide would be 55 percent. That would set the world on fire. We'd all be incredibly shocked."