OGDEN - It has been nearly three years since city leaders made the rather bold move to buy the failed Ogden City Mall and demolish it to make way for a miniature Gateway in the heart of the city - an open-air affair with shops and condos, offices and restaurants.

What residents see on the old mall site, however, is a barren 20 acres of dirt that some deridingly call Ground Zero.

The city's failure to begin development can in part be blamed on bad timing. Officials agree the economy has been lousy.

But critics claim the lack of movement has another cause: the overly optimistic projections of Mayor Matthew Godfrey and his economic development director, Stuart Reid, who believe they can create a demand that does not now exist in downtown Ogden.

"It was upside down to begin with," says Walker Kennedy III, general counsel for Woodbury Corp., a Salt Lake City real-estate development company that is suing the city for $5 million because the company held a loan on a building the city destroyed with the mall.

"If it made sense, you'd have people lining up to lease that property," says Kennedy.

Merilee Utter, president of Citiventure, the Denver company that backed out as the master developer last winter, says she found that potential tenants would not pay the rents needed to make the project pencil out.

Moreover, Ogden was not willing to kick in incentives or enough public money - a necessity in such "transformational" projects where the pay-off is years away, she says. "It isn't a slam dunk to lease in Ogden. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure that out."

Deana Froerer, a consultant who two years ago did an in-depth economic analysis of the project for Ogden's newspaper, The Standard-Examiner, says Citiventure's experience confirmed her contention that the city would need to heavily subsidize the project and wait perhaps years for the market to ripen.

"The market wouldn't allow Citiventure to go ahead. How does the city believe they'll make the numbers work?"

Godfrey acknowledges the project has moved slowly. But he blames Citiventure for the nine-month "fiasco" of a delay and he bristles at those who question his strategy to build a project and hope demand follows.

"You create a market with the big pieces you put into a project," says Godfrey. "You have to prime the pump, create the vision. Things spin off of that."

And the spinning, he promises, is about to begin.

By the end of August, he says, several "anchors" for the development's north end will be announced.

"We hope to unveil all of that . . . the movie theaters, possibly some restaurants and office components."

Godfrey said no agreements have been signed, but added, "We're really close."

The city has not yet begun work on the infrastructure - streets, water and sewer lines - but it is remodeling the massive parking structure along the property's west side.

Among the pieces to be announced are a "high adventure recreation center" and a parcel to be developed by the real estate arm of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

Mark Gibbons, president of Property Reserves Inc., said the church-owned company intends to close soon on a $468,000 deal to buy just more than an acre across the street from the Ogden Temple, the north corner of the project along Washington.

Plans for the former mall site are not final, but Gibbons said a Deseret Book, other shops, offices and apartments all are possibilities.

If the church builds a new bookstore, it will be near the Treehouse Children's Museum, as it was in the failed mall. Construction on the museum, which will lease land from the city at a reduced rate, is to begin this fall at the north end of the four-block parcel.

Godfrey said the city will own the recreation-center building, but the business will be owned and operated by a private gym operator.

Wal-Mart's decision to build a super store a few blocks to the west - the city must first assemble the land at that site by purchasing existing homes and businesses - is another piece of good news for the mall, Godfrey says. "It will bring shoppers downtown with money in their pockets."

Froerer, however, wonders if the city isn't inviting more "cannibalism" for the businesses it hopes to entice.

A private developer is trying to fill new condos and shops on 25th Street, and the city also plans to build the nearby River Project with homes, shops and restaurants.

"They try to couch things [in the] positive, but it's clear it's not a gang-busters market anywhere downtown," says Froerer.

kmoulton@sltrib.com