If underdog Peter Corroon hopes to win the Utah governor's race, he'd better start biting into Gary Herbert's lead.
It's sizable.
A Salt Lake Tribune poll gives Herbert, the Republican incumbent, a 25-percentage-point advantage over Corroon, the Democratic Salt Lake County mayor.
More than half (55 percent) want to return Herbert to the governor's chair he inherited in the summer, when Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. became ambassador to China, according to the statewide survey of 625 regular voters.
Corroon netted 30 percent, with 15 percent undecided. (The survey, conducted by Washington D.C.-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., carries an overall 4 percent margin of error.)
"Obviously, those numbers are encouraging," Herbert spokeswoman Angie Welling said. "A 25 percent difference is something to be pleased with."
But the race has 10 months until the finish line.
Barely a week has passed since Corroon announced his plans to join the Statehouse chase. That's not a lot of time, he says, to get his name and message out.
So Corroon, a political unknown before winning the mayor's office six years ago, found few reasons to fret about the latest figures, saying his campaign simply must run "a hard, consistent race" to "let people know who I am and what my platform will be as governor."
Political observers say the numbers -- not grand for Herbert, not terrible for Corroon -- speak more to how well the two candidates are known across the state.
"People are not ready to answer yet," said Quin Monson, associate director of Brigham Young University's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, who said the numbers seem to follow the state's split between Republicans and Democrats. "It is not great news for either one. It is not devastating news for either one."
What the survey does show is that neither candidate is viewed unfavorably.
Nearly two-thirds (62 percent) of respondents statewide described Herbert's performance as "good" or "excellent." Corroon, at 73 percent, fares even better among Salt Lake County voters (47 percent statewide).
The poll also suggests, not surprisingly, that Herbert has wider name recognition across Utah. Only 8 percent remained undecided about the governor's work, compared with 36 percent for Corroon.
"Obviously," Corroon said, "a lot of people statewide don't know me."
That's true of David Wexstein, a Washington City voter, who says he knows too little about either candidate to pick one. He's looking for a good manager to get the state out of its economic "mess."
And it's true of Bountiful resident Mary Thomson, who plans to vote for Corroon because "he is not Herbert." She doesn't know much about Corroon's politics, but says she has been disappointed with the governor's approach to radioactive waste and Snake Valley water.
Corroon has made a name for himself in Salt Lake County -- he snagged a second term in 2008 with 66 percent of the vote.
Still, the mayor remains in a statistical dead heat in the county, leading Herbert 44 percent to 34 percent (with a 6 percent margin of error). His numbers slip in other parts of Utah, where Herbert holds the edge, 68 percent to 21 percent.
Oddly, the number of undecided votes is higher in Salt Lake County. Twenty-two percent don't know whom they will select for governor, compared with 11 percent outside the valley.
Both candidates are beginning to define themselves. When Corroon declared his gubernatorial bid, he cited the two issues raised by Thomson -- radioactive waste and Snake Valley water -- to jab at Herbert.
And Herbert has taken a hard line on taxes, insisting the state can balance its bleeding budget without an increase. Corroon, on the other hand, chose to raise property taxes to help balance a 2010 ledger that also whacked spending by $142 million, shrunk the size of the county's work force and imposed a new police fee on unincorporated burbs such as Magna, Millcreek and Kearns.
Those issues could make a difference.
"To tell you the absolute truth, I am angry," said Sharon Hatch, a poll respondent from Spanish Fork. "We are dinged here and dinged there. Everywhere you turn, there is a new tax."
Hatch plans to vote for Herbert, whom she believes will be less likely to burden her with another tax.
The poll shows Republicans favor Herbert (79 percent to 9 percent) and Democrats side with Corroon (85 percent to 4 percent). Independents are leaning to the right with 49 percent pointing to Herbert and 25 percent toward Corroon.
Herbert is capturing the Mormon vote (72 percent to 13 percent) and Corroon the non-LDS vote (66 percent to 19 percent).
