With the movie with the most nominations, "Dreamgirls," shut out of Best Picture, and with some craft categories (such as cinematography and art direction) devoid of Best Picture nominees, there are few handy guideposts for would-be Oscar prognosticators.

Undaunted, The Salt Lake Tribune's movie critic Sean P. Means offers his fearless predictions for how things will go - and how they should go - at the 79th annual Academy Awards on Sunday night. (The ceremony airs Sunday, starting at 6 p.m., on KTVX, Ch. 4.)

Predictions in the major categories are printed here. Predictions on the others can be found on The Movie Cricket blog, at blogs.sltrib.com/movies.

Best Picture "Babel"

* Nominees: "Babel," "The Departed," "Letters From Iwo Jima," "Little Miss Sunshine," "The Queen."

* Who will win: "The Departed" may have the cache of Martin Scorsese, plus it's the only box-office hit of the five, but some may feel Scorsese's probable win for Best Director will be reward enough. (The same logic has been applied to "The Queen" and Helen Mirren's lock on the Best Actress statuette.) "Little Miss Sunshine" is everybody's favorite underdog and the only happy ending of the five, but it has two strikes against it: it's an indie and a comedy. My money's on "Babel," this year's "Crash" - the big, multi-layered, important movie.

* Who should win: "The Queen," with its subtle blend of the political and the personal, is the best of the five.

* Write-in candidate: "United 93" is the best movie of 2006.

Best Actor: Forest Whitaker

* Nominees: Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond"; Ryan Gosling, "Half Nelson"; Peter O'Toole, "Venus"; Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"; Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland."

* Who will win: Whitaker has swept the board of pre-Oscar awards. The only thing that could keep him from Oscar could be a sentimental vote for O'Toole - but that's not going to happen.

* Who should win: Gosling's turn as a caring teacher with a drug habit is the most subtle performance of the five. But Oscar doesn't usually care about subtlety.

* Write-in candidate: Sacha Baron Cohen, in "Borat," didn't just risk embarrassment. He risked getting arrested. That's acting.

Best Actress: Helen Mirren

* Nominees: Penelope Cruz, "Volver"; Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"; Helen Mirren, "The Queen"; Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"; Kate Winslet, "Little Children."

* Who will win: Award season has been a long coronation for Mirren, and it's not going to stop Sunday night.

* Who should win: Mirren didn't just impersonate Queen Elizabeth II, she inhabited the monarch's soul.

* Write-in candidate: Ivana Baquero, age 12, was the heart of the surreal "Pan's Labyrinth."

Best Supporting: Actor Eddie Murphy

* Nominees: Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"; Jackie Earle Haley, "Little Children"; Djimon Hounsou, "Blood Diamond"; Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"; Mark Wahlberg, "The Departed."

* Who will win: Murphy's comeback performance as aging singer James "Thunder" Early will not be denied, not even by everyone who hated "Norbit." Arkin's career-achievement nomination, like O'Toole's, will come up short.

* Who should win: Speaking of comebacks, former child star Haley did the near-impossible: He made us feel sympathy for a pedophile.

* Write-in candidate: Michael Sheen, playing the politically astute Tony Blair, gave Helen Mirren the perfect sparring partner in "The Queen."

Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson

* Nominees: Adriana Barraza, "Babel"; Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal"; Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine"; Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"; Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel."

* Who will win: Hudson's show-stopper performance, and her up-from-nowhere backstory, are too much for Oscar to resist.

* Who should win: A toss-up between the "Babel" co-stars, with a slight nod to Kikuchi for her passionate and wordless performance.

* Write-in candidate: Meryl Streep doesn't need more nominations, but she deserved one for her fragile songbird in "A Prairie Home Companion."

Best Director: Martin Scorsese

* Nominees: Clint Eastwood, "Letters from Iwo Jima"; Stephen Frears, "The Queen"; Paul Greengrass, "United 93"; Alejandro González Iñárritu, "Babel"; Martin Scorsese, "The Departed."

* Who will win: Martin Scorsese failed to get the Oscar when he wanted it too much by making oversized epics ("Gangs of New York," "The Aviator"), but going back to his gangster roots will pay off.

* Who should win: Greengrass' re-creation of 9/11 honored the dead and reminded us what is really at stake in the War on Terror.

* Write-in candidate: González Iñárritu is representing Mexico, but two of his countrymen should be in the race: Guillermo del Toro for "Pan's Labyrinth" and Alfonso Cuarón for "Children of Men."

Best Original Screenplay: "Little Miss Sunshine"

*Nominees: "Babel," "Letters From Iwo Jima," "Little Miss Sunshine," "Pan's Labyrinth," "The Queen."

* Who will win: Michael Arndt's offbeat, Proust-quoting script for "Little Miss Sunshine."

* Who should win: I'll flip a coin and pick the wild fantasy of "Pan's Labyrinth" and the subtle realism of "The Queen."

* Write-in candidate: Paul Greengrass' script for "United 93" showed an astounding command of facts and emotional truth.

Best Adapted Screenplay: "The Departed"

* Nominees: "Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan," "Children of Men," "The Departed," "Little Children," "Notes on a Scandal."

* Who will win: William Monahan's taut, exciting script for "The Departed" is the only Best Picture nominee in the category.

* Who should win: The script for "Children of Men" created a bleak future and a hopeful situation.

* Write-in candidate: The script for "A Prairie Home Companion" caught the flavor of Garrison Keillor's radio show, and its mortality allegory served as a fitting epitath for director Robert Altman.

* SEAN P. MEANS can be reached at movies@sltrib.com or 801-257-8602. Send comments to livingeditor@sltrib.com. For predictions on the other Oscar categories, go to The Movie Cricket blog at blogs.sltrib.com/movies.

* YOU HAVE until Sunday afternoon to tell us who should win and will win Academy Awards in the Tribune's 9th annual Oscars poll and contest at www.sltrib.com/oscars.