This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2016, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.
If you want to watch a roll-over on Friday night, get a dog.
http://bit.ly/2dbWtuM";>USC (1-2) comes in with issues to be sure, but in series history with Utah, it's never been an easy match-up. The last 12 games of the series, Utah has only won twice by a combined seven points. There's a reason for this: USC draws from the highest tier of athletic talent, and has fast, big, nimble athletes at most positions. Even in down years, USC has home-run threats on offense and playmakers on defense who can change games in a span of seconds.
So too can the established narrative — the Trojans come to Rice-Eccles with issues against the stout defense of No. 24 Utah — evolve in an instant. A fast start, or a few turnovers in a row (http://www.sltrib.com/sports/3095059-155/utah-football-utes-finally-lose-turnover";>Utah fans muttered Cam Smith's name under their breaths last year, and may again) can dramatically change the outlook of the game. http://bit.ly/2crMqVp";>Don't doubt that USC has that power, weak though they may appear after two losses to top-10 programs.
The catch for Utah may be that it feels like it has its most athletic roster, and is therefore better matched to compete with USC than ever. But 1-2 starts have a way of making an opponent desparate, and it seems unlikely that even if Utah manages to get up early on USC, that the Trojans will cease clawing back. A 1-3 start wouldn't look good for the Trojans, even with a road-heavy tough schedule.
Neither would an 0-1 start look good for Utah, http://www.sltrib.com/sports/4379497-155/kragthorpe-this-year-is-utes-turn";>which has title-chasing aspirations.
Breaking down the game:
Time, Place and [Radio Waves in] Space • Bring your poncho. And bundle up. The forecast for the 7 p.m. kickoff at Rice-Eccles Stadium calls for rain and temperatures maybe even dipping into the high 40s. Fall has started with a vengeance in Utah. If you'd rather watch from the comfort of your own home, the game will air on Fox Sports 1, or you can listen in on ESPN 700 AM.
Things going on: Utah athletics is encouraging fans to dress dark for the annual "blackout" promotion, which went swimmingly for Utah against USC in 2014. Coaches will be wearing Coach to Cure MD patches as a part of the American Football Coaches' Association charity fundraiser for those suffering from Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy. Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott will be in the house, addressing media prior to the game. Men's basketball and baseball will be honored at quarter breaks. *Whew*
Line •http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/matchups/";> According to Vegas Insider, the Utes are 3-point home favorites over USC since the line opened at minus-one. Utah is 1-2 against the spread so far this season, as is USC.
Opposing Coach • Clay Helton has http://bit.ly/1RbtIut";>twice been the man who helped salvage in-season departures — now he is working on salvaging his own ugly start. While it could have been predicted that USC would start 1-2, the fashion in which they've lost has been particularly unappealing: The Trojans have only one touchdown between two games to Alabama and Stanford. Helton is 1-4 to start his coaching career, which already has some fans nervous. There has also been off-field problems, including arrests — which wasn't necessarily expected from the guy who promised http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/14258891/clay-helton-named-permanent-coach-usc-trojans";>a return to blue-collar values at his introductory press conference. That all being said, Helton is a coach's son, a long-time USC assistant who knows the program, and has a lot of talent. Something else to consider: In games as head coach, permanent and interim, he's 2-0 against teams from Utah.
Utah Ties • There's some infamous ones here, led this week by Stevie Tu'ikolovatu who played for Utah against USC last year. The senior defensive tackle joined the Trojans as a grad transfer, http://bit.ly/2dky4WT";>and spoke with the Tribune about it. Osa Masina has been suspended indefinitely from all team activities from USC earlier this year http://www.sltrib.com/home/4356637-155/college-football-former-brighton-star-osa";>following charges of sexual assault which were filed in Utah, where he grew up and was a high-level recruit at Brighton (and two of his brothers played for the Utes). Porter Gustin is http://bit.ly/1NoDDfO";>another in-state recruit who got away and has assumed a large role in USC's defense as a sophomore. There's a ton of common high schools between Utah and USC players, mostly SoCal powers (San Clemente, Long Beach Poly, Narbonne, Centennial). Returning to the USC staff this year is John Baxter, special teams coordinator, http://www.sltrib.com/home/2900154-155/utah-football-john-baxter-michigans-special";>who shares close personal ties with Kyle Whittingham.
Pregame Quotable • One thing somewhat left unsaid inhttp://bit.ly/2crMqVp";> the Tribune's story in today's paper is the idea that, because Utah is so invested in the USC game, and because there's so many players who grew up idolizing the program, there is potential danger for the Utes trying to force plays in an effort to show their best selves. Of course, forcing plays has helped author nine turnovers so far this season for the Utes. Pac-12 Networks analyst Yogi Roth spoke to that point: "Some of those guys are going to be super motivated to look their best, maybe have a chip on their shoulder because they feel overlooked by USC. But when you try too hard, you make mistakes. Utah is a team that traditionally doesn't beat itself with unforced errors. I'm interested to see how Utah handles that, and if they can keep from trying too hard."
Media Guide Nugget • No telling if Harvey R. Holmes never bluffed, but he was up to snuff to be a football coach in the early 1900s — for both USC and Utah. Holmes was 13-9-1 as the head coach of the Utes between 1900-03, with wins over YMCA, the National Guard, and Ogden High among others. He moved in 1904 to USC, where he was 19-5-3 in four seasons there (including a 63-0 win over "Alumni"). He also coached USC's track and baseball teams. Holmes' greatest legacy is not as a coach, but as a composer: http://archive.sltrib.com/story.php?ref=/sltrib/news/57198113-78/utah-song-fight-lyrics.html.csp";>He's credited with crafting the lyrics to "Utah Man." While he traipsed through Southern California after his Utes tenure, he was a Utah Man at the end, dying in Salt Lake City in 1948.
Pro Football Focus Revelations • Each week, https://www.profootballfocus.com/";>Pro Football Focus compiles observations and grades for Utah's game from the previous week. This week, here's what stuck out in the report:
1. Thanks to one mammoth game, Hunter Dimick now leads the nation with 23 quarterback pressures, according to PFF. The senior end has three sacks for the season. In the San Jose State game itself, he had a whopping 13 pressures, only one of which was unblocked.
2. PFF's top free safety in the nation is … Marcus Williams. He recently appeared on a list of https://www.profootballfocus.com/draft-4-rising-nfl-prospects-on-our-radar/";>rising NFL Draft prospects for the analytics site. PFF noted that this week, on 43 coverage snaps, Williams did not allow a single completion into his coverage area.
3. Troy Williams got another positive passing grade (plus-2.0), thanks much in part to his big downfield completions. But there's an eye-opening split in his numbers: On downs when he had time to throw, Williams was 18 of 19 for 232 yards. On downs when he was pressured, he was 2 of 9 for 25 yards. Think USC's going to bring the noise?
4. Top-graded offensive lineman? Sophomore Jackson Barton, who made a big impact in the run game (plus-3.5) in his spot start. Lineman who struggled? Senior Isaac Asiata (minus-2.2), who PFF said gave up two sacks on Williams.
Trojans Offensive Outlook • Yes, http://bit.ly/2cFABZH";>USC is starting a freshman quarterback against the Utes — and it's one Utah wanted back in the day. Sam Darnold, who hails from the same high school as Travis Wilson, was one of the most recruited quarterbacks in the country after Utah offered him first. But he chose USC, and now has ascended the depth chart to start his first game Friday night. Darnold has a big, powerful arm, but also isn't afraid to run it. It's believed his presence under center will give USC option and QB run plays that it didn't enjoy with Max Browne at the helm. One of the weirdest parts of the season so far is how the offensive line has underperformed with penalties and getting beat despite four returners, including potential first-round draft choice and massive human (6-foot-9, 360 pounds) Zach Banner. USC has given up six sacks this year, and averaging less than 120 yards rushing.
Of course, USC has plenty of guys who can run the ball if that can get going: Tailbacks Justin Davis and Ronald Jones II were both problematic last year for Utah's defense. So was receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, who https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ILAV4LPpjSE";>memorably stiff-armed Dominique Hatfield while going over 100 yards. Surprisingly the junior has yet to crack 100 yards through his first three games, but he's certainly a very real threat, as are Darreus Rogers and Stephen Mitchell. USC's offense is ranked outside the top 100 in both scoring (20.3 ppg) and yards (323.0 ypg), but the Trojans hope changing Darnold in (136 yards passing, 2 passing TDs, 1 interception) will spark the unit to life.
Trojans Defensive Outlook • Slightly in better shape than the offense, but not by much. The problem here has been giving up explosive plays: Christian McCaffrey had a solid night against this unit, which has cited misalignment and communication errors. Thanks much in part to giving up 52 to Alabama, USC's rankings so far (No. 81 scoring defense, No. 65 total defense, No. 74 red zone defense) are not impressive. But there's solid playmakers, led by linebackers Utah knows well: Cameron Smith (who picked off Travis Wilson three times last year) and Gustin, who has emerged as a pass-rushing threat (2 sacks). Stevie Tu'ikolovatu is finally getting his chance to start, only as a Trojan who can stuff the run (as the Utes well know). Tu'ikolovatu told the media this week he was giving USC's defenders the inside scoop on Utah's offensive linemen and their weaknesses, which has to be expected, but is still a potentially liability.
In the backfield are Adoree Jackson and Iman Marshall, two athletic corners who are capable of big plays (each has a pick this year). Safety Leon McQuay III has started two of three games and is becoming a key player for the defense, according to Zach Helfand of the L.A. Times. Overall, USC could use more sacks (5) and interceptions (3), but maybe the tough schedule is helping water down those numbers.
Trojans Special Teams Outlook • Kicker Matt Boermeester is 4 for 5 on kicks this year, with his only miss coming from beyond 50 yards. Punter Chris Tilbey is middle-of-the road, averaging 38 net punting yards this year. But the player to really watch is junior returner Adoree Jackson, who can take off like lightning. He just missed the cut for Olympic long jump and a trip to Rio, and he's burned the Utes before in 2014 on a kick return for a touchdown. Mitch Wishnowsky, who is currently leading the country in net punting average, may see his leader status threatened by Jackson.
Injury Report • Utah is hoping for several bodies back this week: Cornerback Dominique Hatfield and receiver Tyrone Smith were practicing earlier in the week, but it's unclear if either will be available. Starting right tackle Sam Tevi was out against San Jose State, but could return as well (if not, Jackson Barton could fill in for a second straight week). USC will be without safety John Plattenburg and defensive lineman Noah Jefferson for sure, http://www.dailynews.com/sports/20160922/usc-at-utah-tv-info-scouting-report-and-prediction";>according to the L.A. Daily News, and defensive end Malik Dorton is graded as "probable."
Three Big Questions
1. How will Sam Darnold fare against Utah's defense? Even the most surface-level analysis can earn a raised eyebrow at the decision to give a freshman his first start at Utah. One of the nation's leaders in sacks (No. 2, 15) and defensive pass efficiency (No. 8, 85.29), the Utes haven't exactly taken it easy on quarterbacks so far this year. While Taysom Hill and Kenny Potter found some room to run, they never looked very comfortable for long throwing the football, and Utah has been very good at disrupting timing and plays downfield, with only a few long passing plays (many of them achieved through yards after the catch). Darnold has the best arm of anyone Utah has yet faced, and that mixed with his running threat could be tricky. But is Darnold really ready to handle Sack Lake City in his first DI start? Clay Helton seems to think so.
2. Can Utah still manufacture explosive plays against Pac-12 competition? A huge key to Utah's offense has been the big plays: Troy Williams is third in the conference in yards per completion (13.39), and he has five passes of 40 yards or more. It helps that he has Cory Butler-Byrd, who looked explosive back from his suspension last week, back in the fold. http://bit.ly/2cHz6gH";>If Tim Patrick can continue to produce at the level he's maintained through the first three games, and the Utes can continue to hit home runs on offense, they'll be tough for USC to stop —http://www.latimes.com/sports/usc/la-sp-usc-utah-20160922-snap-story.html";> that's been the Trojan's Achilles' heel (so to speak). But it's also the fastest, most athletic defense Utah has faced so far, so questions remain whether Utah's newfound explosiveness in nonconference play is legitimate or not.
3. What factor does weather and environment play on the game? Bless the fans who brave the stands for miserable-sounding conditions. But the players will find even more of a challenge. If the balls get slick, if the turf gets tough to cut into, if it's harder to tackle in the rain, it could get really mucky. Maybe Williams has some extra hardiness to rain from his time in Seattle, but it's hard to see the passing game getting well off the ground for either team if the conditions are poor. That would leave a lot on the shoulders of an inexperienced group of Utah backs to churn out yards on the ground (and not fumble), while Utah's defense will have to contend with Davis and Jones, two explosive USC backs who might not be much fun to keep up with.
See you Friday night, rain or shine.
kgoon@sltrib.com
Twitter: @kylegoon