The Tribune's NBA picks for 2017-18

MVP

In Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals last May, the San Antonio Spurs led the Golden State Warriors by 20 points in the third quarter with Kawhi Leonard on the floor.

Without him — he injured his ankle twice in that quarter and missed the remainder of the series — the Spurs lost that game, and were swept without a hint of being competitive for the rest of the series.

There are many definitions to being the most valuable player, and the NBA is flush with enough stardom to make this a deep conversation every season. But, more than anything, how would your team do without you? Would it falter? Or would it be able to hold up?

The Spurs have traditionally been a great team, a sterling franchise and are routinely in the hunt for a title. But this season, this is a team that will falter without Leonard. LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Kevin Durant and Stephon Curry are all fine candidates, and are all worthy of serious consideration, but because of his importance to San Antonio’s overall outlook, Kawhi Leonard is The Tribune’s pick as the NBA’s most valuable player.

Coach of the year

Brett Brown has been oft-maligned at the helm of the Philadelphia 76ers. He has also had no talent to work with. That will change this season. Ben Simmons is finally healthy. Joel Embiid — knock on wood everyone — is finally healthy. Markelle Fultz and Dario Saric are young guys ready to make an impact and JJ Redick and Amir Johnson offer veteran leadership. Now, we can finally see Brown actually coach, and he’s a really good coach. Expect the Sixers, health permitting, to find themselves in the playoff hunt. Making that big a leap will bring about recognition, and not many are more deserving than Brown.

Coach on the hot seat

The other side of this equation is Earl Watson, who has consistently been given a young roster in Phoenix. The Suns just don’t seem to be getting a lot better, or any closer to being competitive. Part of this is they just don’t seem to have much of a plan. And when you don’t have a plan, the first scapegoat is usually the coach. The Suns are going to struggle again this season. They are exceptionally young, they aren’t good defensively and they are in the unforgiving Western Conference. This is almost certainly a recipe for a coach nearing termination.

Team to beat

This one is obvious. The Golden State Warriors are far and away the best team in basketball, and the team that everyone is chasing. Nobody is going to catch them, either. They are prohibitive favorites for a second consecutive championship and a third title in four years. We aren’t sure anyone should be on the same floor with them in a series at this point. The Warriors’ biggest challenge is themselves. Do the they get complacent? Do they get bored? If so, someone may be able to pick them off. But if they do remain hungry, the title is theirs for the taking.

Don’t sleep on

The Oklahoma City Thunder. If there’s one team ripe to challenge the Warriors, OKC is it. They certainly have the scoring to do so, with Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. But now they also have the wing play needed to match up with the Warriors. The Thunder have an athletic roster with size and shooting throughout the lineup, two traits that have given the Warriors issues in the past. Of course, the Thunder aren’t on Golden State’s level, player for player. At the same time, OKC does match up better with the Warriors than anyone in the NBA.

Team you don’t want to play

The Boston Celtics are no joke. Not only does this roster now have Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward. It’s a roster full of athletic and skilled wings who are made for today’s style of play. Cleveland is still the favorite in the Eastern Conference as long as LeBron James is still around. But the Celtics have closed the gap and have the tools to make it a battle. Brad Stevens’ coaching complements a roster which is one of the best in the NBA. And Boston’s bench is strong and deep. Count on the Celtics challenging for the top seed in the East, and being fully capable of another deep playoff run.

Most overrated team

We like Minnesota’s talent with Jimmy Butler, Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns. At the same time, the Timberwolves have some holes in their roster. Their bench is thin, with Jamal Crawford the headliner. Other than Butler and Taj Gibson, nobody on the roster has defended at a high level during their respective careers. There isn’t a lot of shooting, either. Now, the Wolves can overcome this with their great length and athleticism. And Butler along with Towns are both special players. But everyone is tabbing the Timberwolves as a top five team out West, and they really need to prove it.

Most overrated player

Talent-wise, DeMarcus Cousins is one of the top 10 players in the league. But when your talent suggests that lofty ranking, the burden of winning and leading your teams to wins comes along with that.

Cousins hasn’t come close to being on a winning team in his career. Perhaps that changes this year, as the New Orleans Pelicans make another go at it with Cousins and Anthony Davis as headliners. But until he does, Cousins is going to find his name on lists like these. There’s no malice here. If anything, it’s a badge of honor. We expect more from Cousins because he’s so talented at every facet of the game. Give us more, DeMarcus. Give us more.

Most underrated player

At this point, Rudy Gobert is criminally underrated. Yes, he made all-NBA last year. Yes, he was a finalist for defensive player of the year and most improved player. At the same time, NBA fans outside of Utah’s market simply don’t realize how good this guy really is. His overwhelming reputation is that of a defensive savant who doesn’t make an impact offensively, when in reality he was quite impactful offensively last year. He regularly isn’t mentioned when conversations turn to the best centers in the NBA. Gobert has a chance to dispel any myths once and for all this season. If he leads the new-look Jazz to the playoffs, he can do just that.

Future household name

Athletic point guards in nice-sized markets who score a bunch of points always rise to the top. Dennis Smith will certainly have a chance to do so. He’s a guy who, at 6-foot-2, can throw it down in traffic. He’s quick and explosive. He plays for a Dallas Mavericks team aching for star power, and he’ll regularly find himself on highlight films, even as a rookie. He’s our early choice to be the slam dunk champion this year at All-Star Weekend, and he’s an outgoing and engaging person. He’ll get a lot of endorsements throughout his career.

Top rookie

Kyle Kuzma, Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson, Smith and Malik Monk certainly have a chance. Four other rookies REALLY have a chance: Jayson Tatum from the Boston Celtics, Markelle Fultz and Ben Simmons from Philadelphia and Utah’s Donovan Mitchell.

The first group is exceptionally talented, as are Tatum and Mitchell, but this isn’t a talent thing. The reason Tatum, Mitchell, Simmons and Fulta will be at the head of this class is they will play significant roles on playoff teams. And in Tatum’s case, a title contender. Tatum is already a starter, as are Simmons and Fultz. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Mitchell a starter for the Jazz at some point this season. Really, though, this is the best rookie class in quite some time.

Simmons is the pick here.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Pacific Division

The Warriors reign supreme here. Seriously, Golden State may have this division locked up by Christmas. The only other team that could possibly make the playoffs are the Clippers. The Lakers, Suns and Kings will all be in the lottery hunt by the all-star break. The Warriors may win this division by 25-30 games. That’s how large the gap is here.

Southwest Division

This used to be the best division in basketball. It’s no longer that, but it’s still pretty good. As many as four teams are playoff contenders, including the Spurs, Rockets, Pelicans and Grizzlies. Ultimately, the division will come down to the Spurs and Rockets. Ultimately, the Rockets will win it. There’s too much talent and depth in Houston, a team we think is the third best in the Western Conference.

Northwest Division

This is the new best division in basketball, and brutal for the five teams that have to play one another four times each. The Jazz won the division last year. That won’t be the case this time around, as the Northwest is now Oklahoma City’s to lose. All five times should and will be in the playoff hunt. There’s star power on all five teams, and the Thunder are probably the second best team in the Western Conference. This division will be highly competitive throughout the season.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Southeast Division

The Wizards should run away with this division, just like they did last year. But don’t sleep on the Heat who went 30-11 over the last 41 games a season ago. The problem is the Heat went 11-30 over the first 41. They are capable of challenging the Wizards and should be in the playoff hunt. The Hornets are a capable third team. The Magic are on a treadmill, while the Hawks are going to be dreadful.

Central Division

The Cavaliers will once again run away with the division, and are the best team in the Eastern Conference. But don’t sleep on the Bucks. If they get to fourth place in the East, and second place in the division, don’t be shocked. The Bucks have star power, a great defense, and should be better offensively once Jabari Parker gets healthy again. The remaining three teams — the Pistons, Bulls and Pacers — are nothing to write home about. This is a two-team race for sure.

Atlantic Division

The Celtics will be the best team here by a pretty good margin, but the Raptors will once again be very good and the Sixers should finally break through and get to the playoffs — as long as Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons can stay healthy. This is easily the most competitive division in the Eastern Conference at the top. And don’t discount the Nets, who will be improved. The Knicks? Well, they will once again be a laughingstock. And that’s sad for the Mecca of basketball, and for a fan base that aches for and deserves a competent franchise.