Remember the fun of April? The Jazz completed their 51-win regular season, returned to the NBA playoffs for the first time in five years and battled the Los Angeles Clippers through seven games of a series that ended with the Jazz’s convincing road victory.
That was good stuff. Now, forget it happened.
That’s my advice for coping with this 2017-18 season, which is certain to become a downturn for the franchise in comparison to last year. With the loss of Gordon Hayward to Boston in free agency, the momentum generated by the Jazz’s first playoff series victory in seven years is gone, and so is a significant chunk of the team’s talent.
Anyone expecting the Jazz to establish anything close to a 51-win pace as this season unfolds is sure to be disappointed. I’ve got them finishing 42-40, fighting for the last playoff berth in the Western Conference.
If Hayward had stayed, the Jazz may have met Golden State in the conference finals someday, instead of the semifinals as happened last season. Without him, the matchup is more likely to come in the first round this season. And that will be viewed as a step backward.
But what if you erase 2016-17, and think of the Jazz’s trajectory as starting from the ’15-16 point of 40 wins? That’s more encouraging.
This franchise still has a promising outlook, thanks mostly to center Rudy Gobert and coach Quin Snyder. But Hayward’s departure knocks the Jazz down a few spots from their fourth-place tie in the West, partly due to the improvement of Oklahoma City, Denver and Minnesota.
The Jazz simply won’t score enough points to win more than about half of their games. In July, dealing with the loss of Hayward, general manager Dennis Lindsey spoke glowingly of point guard Ricky Rubio and said, “We have to find him more shooters.” That didn’t really happen.
Here’s the twofold consolation: This is not golf, so the Jazz are not merely posting a score; they’re allowed to stop the other guys from scoring. And even though they will score fewer points, the ’17-18 Jazz will be more fun to watch.
That’s because their only hope of producing much offense is to run, when their defense gives them opportunities. Rubio’s game is built around pushing the ball and creating scoring chances for his teammates, and the Jazz will have to take shots much earlier in the 24-second clock than in the past.
Rubio’s passing will be entertaining, and the growth of other players will be fascinating to observe. How will Rodney Hood embrace the role of a No. 1 scorer? How will rookie Donovan Mitchell establish himself in the rotation? How much can a healthy Alec Burks give the Jazz?
Dante Exum would have made that list, but he’s sidelined with a shoulder injury. That’s a discouraging development for him, at a stage when he seemed ready to blossom, and for the Jazz, who really wanted this season to be different from a medical perspective.
Snyder’s creativity already is being tested without Hayward as a dependable scorer, and now he’ll have less depth to work with as he tries to build another playoff team.
The best forecast I’ve ever made is suggesting that Snyder would become a star in the profession, once the Jazz gave him a chance in the NBA. He and his staff have done a remarkable job in three seasons, developing players and winning games, while restoring the Jazz to a highly competitive team in the West.
The renovation of Vivint Smart Home Arena gives the franchise an aura of rejuvenation, the only trouble being that the building would have looked a lot better with Hayward in it. The Jazz will miss him, on the court and in the standings.
This team will get better next year, and the year after that. But this season? It feels like a fresh start, which is not necessarily a good thing.
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