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A standoff ended this week.
Baseball America's latest projected NCAA Tournament field this week has a new name included: Utah. While the Utes have led the Pac-12 most of the conference season, plenty of analysts were still rubbing their eyes, incredulous at what they saw.
How does the last-place team four years in a row lead its league? Many waited for a crash. So far, Utah (23-26, 17-10) has stayed the course, the most surprising contender in any power conference. And slowly, the baseball establishment is starting to come around.
"I think it's time people stopped acting shocked," Pac-12 Networks analyst Wes Clements said. "It may seem awkward to see them there, because they don't have that same heritage as other programs in the Pac-12. But these guys have as good a chance to beat anybody."
That's not news to the Utes, who have won seven Pac-12 series this year, and seven of their past nine games.
The stats take a little wind out of the scrappy underdog image: In conference play, they are second in batting average (.279) and in on-base percentage (.373). Sophomore starter Jayson Rose — who has seized the attention of major league scouts this season with his mid-90s fastball and nasty changeup — leads the league in strikeouts and is six K's away from matching the program season record (102).
Not bad for a team that most will tell you doesn't seem to match up with the rest of the league on paper. But Utah's aggressiveness, particularly on the basepaths, makes it a consistent threat.
"They use everything at their disposal," Clements said. "They hit well, but they also take extra bases. They hit-and-run when nobody expects it, which is why it seems to work."
But the intangibles have also been strong for the Utes, who boast as much experience as they've had in the Pac-12. On Monday night in the top of the ninth, down 5-4 to Cal, the Utes rallied as senior second baseman Kody Davis smacked a double to right center, scoring a pair of runs that led to a 6-5 win, along with the series clincher. Pinch runner Ellis Kelly scored the winning run by a nose, narrowly beating out a tag.
Such late-inning heroics aren't unfamiliar for Utah, which has scored 101 runs in the last three innings of its games this year (vs. 66 in first three and 76 in middle three). Once they have time to figure out pitching, they've racked up late runs. And the bullpen, led by reliever Dylan Drachler (0.43 ERA, 7 saves in Pac-12 play), has been strong enough to hold on.
"We stick to it, we grind it out," senior shortstop Cody Scaggari said. "I think we've really done a good job of staying with it the whole game and pulling out that late clutch hit."
The Utes have helped drive a national narrative that the Pac-12 is having a down season. The latest top 25 has only one Pac-12 team, Oregon State. Injuries to aces for Oregon State, Stanford and Cal have hurt pitching in the league, and helped create more parity.
In that respect, Utah has been lucky. Rose has stayed healthy this year, and Dalton Carroll and Josh Lapiana are also enjoying good seasons on the mound. Utah's experienced starters have been producing, while newcomers such as freshman DaShawn Keirsey Jr. have exceeded some expectations.
But while luck plays a role, D1 Baseball editor Aaron Fitt said the Utes have also shown their grit. They're 9-6 on the road, and even in a less-than-stellar Pac-12, that's not nothing.
"They played good competition, and they've held their own," Fitt said. "There's a history of teams that get hot in the second half doing well in the postseason. Momentum can be a factor."
And yet for as well as they've done, the Utes haven't locked up a postseason bid. That will be decided this weekend in a home series starting Friday against Washington (31-19, 16-11) — which Clements called "the other great story" in the Pac-12. The Utes have to win two of three against the Huskies to clinch the outright conference title and the auto-bid.
The do-or-die nature of the series (Utah is unlikely to get an at-large bid) doesn't seem to fluster the Utes, who've been battling perception all year despite their success.
"The biggest thing is we've had this unreal belief in each other, that we're going to come through," Davis said. "Nobody thought we would stay on top. We just have to do it for one more weekend."
Twitter: @kylegoon —
Keys to success
Utah baseball has surprised the Pac-12 and the nation by leading the league, but several statistics show how the Utes have managed to compete (statistics for Pac-12 games only):
• No. 2 in batting average (.279)
• No. 2 in on-base percentage (.377)
• Sophomore P Jayson Rose No. 3 in ERA (2.18) and No. 2 in strikeouts (62) —
Utah vs. Washington
P Smith's Ballpark
The Utes and the Huskies play a best-of-three series with the Pac-12 title and NCAA Tournament auto-bid on the line.
Game 1 • Friday, noon (Pac-12 Networks)
Game 2 • Saturday, noon (Pac-12 Networks)
Game 3 • Sunday, noon (Pac-12 Networks)