First down Indianapolis at Houston

11 a.m. TV » Ch. 2

Reason to watch » The Colts could well be the best team in the NFL. But you knew this. The real reason to get excited about this game is that the Colts are due for a bad game and the Texans -- yes, the Texans -- have a shot at making it into the playoffs as a wild-card team.

Reason not to watch » This is about the seventh Indianapolis game we've seen this year and you've moved on to other teams. Perhaps the Redskins are more your speed.

The line » Indianapolis by 31/2.

The pick » Indianapolis. Level of certainty: 6. Gamblers must be betting on a down week for the Colts, too. Nothing else can explain the measly line. We say stick with Peyton Manning.

Second down

Washington at Philadelphia

11 a.m. TV » Ch. 13

Reason to watch » Perhaps you are fascinated by bad football teams like the Redskins. Or maybe you want to see the Eagles' Michael Vick do something for a change. Or you can get your TV warmed up for the next game on this channel. At least it's not Tampa Bay at Atlanta or Seattle at St. Louis. Be thankful.

Reason not to watch » There are many. Perhaps the Colts are more your speed.

The line » Philadelphia by 9.

The pick » Washington. Level of certainty: 1. The Eagles are up and down like a roller coaster. This is

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more a bet that the Redskins will keep this game reasonably close. Plus, we've gotten burned by the Eagles a few times this season.

Third down

Chicago at Minnesota

2:15 p.m. TV » Ch. 13

Reason to watch » In fairness, there's only one other afternoon game Fox could show -- Arizona at Tennessee. And it's a long drive to Phoenix, where the game is on TV. So we'll just go with this: though Brett Favre's omnipresence annoys us, he is pretty fun to watch play.

Reason not to watch » We feel a little guilty saying this, having Minnesota ties, but we would rather see Kurt Warner facing the red-hot Titans. That game is only on in about three media markets.

The line » Minnesota by 11.

The pick » Minnesota. Level of certainty: 8. The Vikings are hitting on all cylinders against subpar competition and the Bears are collapsing. Bet hot to stay hot.

Fourth down

Pittsburgh at Baltimore

6:20 p.m. TV » Ch. 5

Reason to watch » Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger got a concussion last week and won't be playig. Can you even name the Steelers' backup? Those who said Charlie Batch cheated. Also, Baltimore is in desperate need of a victory.

Reason not to watch » With Cyber Monday coming up tomorrow, who has time for football?

The line » No line.

The pick » Roethlisberger's injury is keeping this one off the board. So: New York Jets by 3 over Carolina. Pick: Carolina. Certainty: 10. If you don't think this one's a lock, find some recent Mark Sanchez highlights and let us know what you think.

Season betting record » 22-22-1

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Around the league

Cleveland at Cincinnati,

11 a.m. » In an alternate universe, this game could be considered interesting. But there's a lot of hatred going back at least to Sam Wyche's infamous rant over a stadium sound system.

Miami at Buffalo,

11 a.m. » We keep thinking the Dolphins' playoff hopes are trashed, but they keep hanging around.

Carolina at N.Y. Jets,

11 a.m. » No significance here but fun to watch the Jets implode.

Seattle at St. Louis,

11 a.m. » Avert your eyes.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta,

11 a.m. » Falcons are crashing, perhaps the Bucs can get win No. 2.

Kansas City at San Diego,

2 p.m. » Chargers have won five straight. That number will go up by one.

Jacksonville at S.F.,

2 p.m. » Choose more impressive stat: Jags are in playoff position or Alex Smith's QB rating is over 80.

Arizona at Tennessee, 2:15 p.m. » Titans could be one out of a playoff spot if they win. Cards have basically clinched West.