First down Denver at Washington

11 a.m. TV » Ch. 2

Reason to watch » If ever there was a week to break from showing the Broncos in Salt Lake, we would nominate this to be that week. The only intrigue we can think of: The Broncos have lost two straight, but they couldn't possibly find a way to lose to lowly Washington. Right? Apparently, gamblers feel like there could be some intrigue here.

Reason not to watch » A six-win Broncos team against a six-loss Washington team. Enough said.

The line » Denver by 31/2.

The pick » Denver. Level of certainty: 7. Finally, a Broncos game we are comfortable with picking. As bad as Washington is, there's no reason to think this game will be all that competitive.

Second down

Detroit at Minnesota

11 a.m. TV » Ch. 13

Reason to watch » There are only two reasons this game is being shown: 1. The other options for FOX are terrible ; 2. The Vikings' quarterback. Granted, Minnesota has been letting some teams stick around that have no business doing so -- we are looking at you, San Francisco -- but the Vikings have no reason for this to be close.

Reason not to watch » Perhaps you are a big Broncos fan, in which case you are in luck.

The line » Minnesota by 17.

The pick » Detroit. Level of certainty: 2. We love gigantic lines as much as the next newspaper guy who picks the TV games in the Sunday paper, but this one is just too big to pick with.

Third down

Dallas at Green Bay

2:15 p.m. TV » Ch. 13

Reason to watch » They call them America's team for a reason. That reason is because you love them, can't get enough of them, and therefore will watch this game no matter the score. Green Bay is also on the national radar and you like that.

Reason not to watch » The score doesn't figure to be terribly close, what with Dallas leading the NFC East and the Packers foundering along.

The line » Dallas by 3.

The pick » Dallas. Level of certainty: 6. Ride the hot hand, that's our motto when it comes to the Cowboys. They're consistent, when they're good, they cover for weeks on end. Until they stop that.

Fourth down

New England at Indy

6:20 p.m. TV » Ch. 5

Reason to watch » Just in case you haven't been paying attention: With respect to the Steelers, these are the two best teams in the AFC, and possibly the NFL. There figures to be plenty of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning shots and it's an exciting matchup.

Reason not to watch » Frankly, you're a little fed up with all this professional football and want to see what cricket is all about.

The line » Indianapolis by 3.

The pick » New England. Level of certainty: 2. New England coach Bill Belichick is the only coach to regularly give Manning fits. He usually doesn't show his hand, but the Patriots aren't a lock for the playoffs. Yet.

Season betting record » 19-18