RSL must beat rival in finale to keep playoff hopes alive

Good thing general manager Garth Lagerwey's girlfriend is earning her master's degree in statistics -- and willing to help. Otherwise, Real Salt Lake might never have figured out the odds on all of the possible scenarios by which it still can reach the Major League Soccer playoffs.

"It's amazing," Lagerwey said. "All of the years we've been involved in the league, and I've never seen anything like it."

Six teams all fighting for the final two playoff spots, with a dizzying array of tie-breaking possibilities depending on who does what on this final weekend of the regular season. It's enough to make an executive's head explode -- except that for RSL, it's also very simple. Unless it can beat the rival Colorado Rapids in the regular-season finale tonight at Rio Tinto Stadium, none of the rest of it will matter.

"If I wasn't coaching, I would be buying a ticket," coach Jason Kreis said.

That's because the Rapids are fighting for the postseason, too, and surely will remember RSL knocked them out of the playoffs on the final day of the last two seasons.

The rivalry between the teams is as heated as any in the league -- the Rapids can claim the Rocky Mountain Cup with a win or a draw -- and team officials expect a sold-out crowd to create a pulsating atmosphere while cheering for a dramatic climax like the one that sent RSL into the playoffs for the first time last year.

"It's going to be a total battle," defender Chris Wingert said with a smile. "It's going to be crazy."

So will the scoreboard watching. Based on their calculations, team officials believe RSL has a 58 percent chance of making the playoffs, so long as it beats the Rapids.

"I'm not exaggerating when I say we spent almost 72 hours on this, almost wall to wall," Lagerwey said.

The odds take into account that the four other teams with which RSL is fighting -- Toronto, D.C. United, FC Dallas and New England -- have won only 10 road games combined in 56 attempts this season, and all four play on the road this weekend. At least two of them must win to eliminate RSL before it gets a chance to navigate a maze of tie-breaking possibilities.

"Our group can't control anything other than what we do" against the Rapids, Kreis said. "So we'll go after -- as we have done, all season long -- three points at home. That has never changed."

The team was surprised to discover it still had a chance to reach the playoffs, after a loss at Toronto last weekend assured it would fall short of the 43 points in the standings it had long believed it would need. But after a series of other results came out just right, the team discovered it still had a sliver of a chance.

"There were some long faces after the Toronto result," Lagerwey said. "But we're resuscitated. We're still alive."

Trying to stay that way is going to be the fun part.

mcl@sltrib.com