Seven months later, remembering who lost the Super Bowl is difficult enough, to say nothing of what happened in the conference championship games.

In the 1960s, the NFL actually staged an annual third-place game partly for that reason, before determining that ending the season with one playoff loss was sufficient punishment for any team. Yet while usually ignoring my own advice in making these preseason picks, I've always liked the possibility of the loser of the conference title game coming back stronger the following season.

That's why, besides fleeing to the AFC after five years of making progressively worse choices on the other side, I'm picking the Baltimore Ravens to win the Super Bowl.

All anybody remembers about the Tom Brady-less 2008 season is how the Steelers dominated the AFC, but the truth is the Ravens were down by only two points in the fourth quarter at Pittsburgh before their rookie quarterback threw an interception that Troy Polamalu returned for a touchdown. Until that moment, the Ravens were poised to complete a three-game run of road victories to the Super Bowl, and they can finish that journey this season.

Joe Flacco is a year older and better, Ray Rice gives Baltimore a dynamic running tandem with Willis McGahee, and a defense anchored by lineman Haloti Ngata of Highland High School and safety Ed Reed is the NFL's best -- outside of Pittsburgh, of course. That qualifier hovers above any ambitious forecast for the Ravens, who again will have trouble winning the AFC North and having any home-field advantage in the playoffs.

In that sense, Pittsburgh, New England or even San Diego would be a safer pick than Baltimore in the AFC. But the Ravens proved last year that they could win on the road in January, and their offense -- which ranked 18th last season -- should improve just enough to elevate their game when it matters.

Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron can now ask Flacco to win games when necessary, instead of just asking him not to lose them. The second-year QB went 23-for-28 for 247 yards against Atlanta in the third preseason game, the most legitimate test of August, and should just keep improving.

Pittsburgh? The Steelers did not suffer the personnel losses that often follow a Super Bowl victory, and nothing abut coach Mike Tomlin's approach engenders complacency. Just the same, staying at that level in this era of the NFL is awfully tough.

New England? Brady looked sharp in the preseason and it is remarkable to think the Patriots went 11-5 without him, but they've lost some of their aura.

San Diego? The AFC West is in such disarray that the Chargers will coast to a divisional title, but their overall schedule is not that easy and don't forget they were only 8-8 last year. I really wanted to pick them this time, but still lacked enough trust in a 25th-ranked defense, even with former Utah star Eric Weddle having become a dependable starting safety.

So the Ravens are my guys in '09, with Ngata and a list of backups including linebacker Paul Kruger (Utah), center David Hale (Weber State), defensive lineman Kelly Talavou (Utah), and quarterback John Beck (BYU) making them the most Utah-centric team in the NFL.

Having them meet me in Miami for the Super Bowl would be nice, especially after what's happened to my NFC picks recently.

kkragthorpe@sltrib.com