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Ute basketball: One man's math puts Utah at No. 1
This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2008, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.

Statistics enthusiast Ken Pomeroy has been described as a "power rankings guru" and the "Bill James of college basketball." He has written for ESPN, publishes The College Basketball Prospectus, and has devised a mathematical formula for rating teams that the Wall Street Journal used last spring to accurately predict the entire Final Four.

And guess who he has ranked No. 1.

That's right, the Utah Utes sat surprisingly atop Pomeroy's ratings Monday, not long after completing a three-game sweep of Wisconsin-Green Bay, Ole Miss and Morgan State in the Glenn Wilkes Classic. Pomeroy swears it doesn't have anything to do with his regular jobs as a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Salt Lake City and associate instructor at the University of Utah - but nor is he ready to proclaim the Utes the team to beat.

"I'm not going to put too much stock into a national championship run just yet," he said with a laugh.

That's because his rankings need a few more weeks of data collection to render a more accurate analysis, which means it's probably too early to say that the Utes would wipe the floor with the likes of Texas (12th), Duke (19th) or UConn (20th).

"We could say it," Pomeroy said, "but that doesn't make it true. When you only have three games worth of data, and those three games have only three games worth of data, you can end up getting some misleading information."

Pomeroy explained on his Web site - www.kenpom.com - that his system is intended to be "purely predictive."

The ratings are the product of a "pythagorean calculation for expected winning percentage," and based on calculations of each team's offensive and defensive efficiencies. Through all manner of ratios and exponents, Pomeroy produces a four-digit fraction - the Utes' was 0.9979 - to assess each team, and doesn't count games against lower-division teams, such as the one the Utes lost to Division II Southwest Baptist.

Still, it's a good start for the Utes, and Pomeroy has talked with coach Jim Boylen about providing some statistical analyses to the team, which "should be pretty good," even if it does descend the rankings as more games are played.

"I do think they are kind of a sleeper team in the Mountain West," Pomeroy said. "It wouldn't surprise me at all if Utah snuck in there and won 10 or 11 games in the conference."

Nevill wins league honor

For only the second time in his career, center Luke Nevill has been named the Mountain West Conference player of the week.

The 7-foot-2 senior averaged 15.3 points and 10 rebounds in the Glenn Wilkes Classic, and added seven blocks, four assists and three steals while making 20 of 29 shots from the floor.

Utah at Missouri State

Friday, 6 p.m. MST

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