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NFL: Fantasy football: Know the signs of players about to go bust
This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2008, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.

Running back Shaun Alexander entered the 2007 NFL season a top-10 fantasy pick. He was coming off an injury-plagued 2006 but still was two seasons removed from a 1,880-yard, 28-touchdown season.

Kaboom! Plagued by more injuries, Alexander never recaptured the form that made him a fantasy legend only a couple years earlier. After rushing for just 207 yards and one touchdown, the Seahawks cut him loose and he's out of the league.

But Alexander wasn't the only notable bust in 2007. Fantasy stalwarts Rudi Johnson, Marvin Harrison and Javon Walker succumbed to injuries and other problems to disappoint their owners. Sleepers such as Alex Smith and Matt Leinart didn't come close to living up to expectations. Even players who didn't completely tank were fantasy letdowns - for example, first-round fantasy pick Willie Parker scored just two TDs last year.

The busts were plentiful in 2007, and probably will be in 2008. Predicting who will disappoint isn't easy, but there are signs that your highly prized fantasy player is about to go kaboom.

He's coming off an injury sustained prior to the season: Alexander was never the same player after his rough 2006. Some players rebound from injuries - look at Deuce McAllister in 2006 (before getting injured in 2007) - while others are a shell of their former selves. Can Johnson recapture the consistency he delivered for the Bengals before last year, or is he headed down the Shaun Alexander highway out of the league? Does McAllister have another comeback in him? And will Jake Delhomme re-emerge as the solid fantasy QB he once was despite last year's elbow injury? Other injury risks include Chad Johnson, whose ego couldn't prevent ankle and shoulder problems; Marc Bulger, who hasn't played a full season yet; and Ronnie Brown, who was unleashing a monster season last year before another injury set him back.

When in-season injuries cause a player to be week-to-week about every week: Lingering injuries that never seem to heal (hamstrings and turf toe come to mind) can drive fantasy owners mad. If no one is sure if a player is starting until every Sunday morning, he might not recover for the rest of the season, like Harrison.

Your fantasy star isn't scoring touchdowns: At one point last season, Parker was leading the league in rushing yet had scored only two touchdowns. He started fumbling more and getting the ball less, and though he finished 2007 with more than 1,300 yards, he still had scored only those two TDs. If a player is not reaching the end zone, he's not getting the ball at times critical for your fantasy success. It's difficult to bench a player like that, but be ready in case that player's team is ready to diminish his role even more.

Your fantasy star is putting up meager stats week to week: There was talk of Frank Gore rushing for 2,000 yards last year. He was only about 900 yards short and passed the 100-yard mark in two games (as well as scoring TDs in just three games). If you don't see a 100-yard game in the first half of the season from your RB1, and he's not scoring many TDs, you more than likely have a bust on your hands. The same applies for QBs who are throwing more interceptions than touchdowns or WRs who are not getting many receptions.

Your player's team is just plain bad: Some fantasy stars do emerge from god-awful teams, but not many. Surely, Gore would have gotten closer to 2,000 if wasn't playing for the 49ers. If you are waiting for that sleeper to suddenly explode, odds are, it won't happen if his team is 1-7.

How do you counter that bust on your team? Your best strategy is to be prepared when you need to replace an unexpectedly underperforming player. Maintain a deep bench, and pick up emerging free agents even if you don't need them. And be ready to make the tough decision when your first-round pick is busting on you. It's not easy, but benching him in favor of a player who's putting up better stats can be the difference between winning and losing.

jgillespie@sltrib.com

8 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT FANTASY FOOTBALL 2008

1.

New England's Randy Moss scored 23 touchdowns last season. The Baltimore defense scored 24. Expect Moss' total to drop under 20, and the Ravens to not improve much.

2.

The Carolina Panthers have not had a 1,000-yard rusher since 2003. Jonathan Stewart might break that trend, as well as continue to the long tradition of at least one rookie running back topping the millennium mark.

3.

The top-scoring kicker in 2007 scored only 23 more points than the kicker in 12th place, an average of less than 1 1/2 points per week. More reason you shouldn't sweat too much who's kicking for your team.

4.

Five running backs have lead the Broncos in rushing the past five years. Selvyn Young was their top rusher last year, and with rookie Ryan Torain injured, might provide some consistency. Or, this being Denver, he might not . . .

5.

The big bye weeks this year are Weeks 4 and 8, when six teams are off. If you drafted a plethora of Patriots, Colts, Seahawks and Giants, don't expect to win Week 4.

6.

Devin Hester scored more touchdowns, six, on special teams than any of his Chicago teammates did on offense. Receiver Bernard Berrian caught five TDs, but he's no longer with the team.

7.

Cleveland's Derek Anderson threw just nine of his 29 touchdowns after Week 10 last season, while tossing 10 of his 19 interceptions in that time. If he starts to falter this year, can Brady Quinn be far behind?

8.

It might not be a good fantasy season for players with Utah ties. John Beck and Alex Smith aren't starting, Steve Smith has a two-game suspension looming and a QB coming off elbow surgery, and Kevin Curtis is injured. That leaves Chris Cooley, above, who has developed into a top-tier tight end in Washington.

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