This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2017, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.
Part of Gordon Hayward's dilemma about staying with the Jazz or moving to the NBA's Eastern Conference involves the level of competition in the West and how the path to the NBA Finals would be much easier in the East.
The Jazz will face significant challenges, even with Hayward. Now to the unthinkable: What if he goes to Boston or Miami? Will the Jazz even make the playoffs in 2017-18?
One NBA expert believes otherwise. With free agency spinning wildly in the West before Hayward's decision, the Boston Globe's Gary Washburn listed the playoff teams in order: Golden State, Houston, San Antonio, Minnesota, Denver, Oklahoma City, the Los Angeles Clippers and Portland.
Obvious omission: Utah. That's not crazy, though. Washburn is assuming Boston will land Hayward, and nobody can dismiss that possibility as Hayward wraps up his series of free agency meetings Monday in San Diego with Jazz personnel.
The market for Hayward's potential replacement is shrinking as the Jazz's rivals in the West keep improving themselves. So what would happen without him?
The Jazz tied with the Clippers for fourth place in the West last season. So four teams would have to overtake the Jazz for them to miss the playoffs in 2017-18. Washburn's rankings project Minnesota, Denver, Oklahoma City and Portland — with Minnesota and Denver coming from below the 2016-17 playoff cut.
Minnesota has added Jimmy Butler from Chicago via trade and Jeff Teague from Indiana via free agency, while trading point guard Ricky Rubio to the Jazz. Denver signed former Jazz forward Paul Millsap after trading for the Jazz's Trey Lyles. Portland drafted Gonzaga's Zach Collins and Purdue's Caleb Swanigan in the first round.
Surprisingly, making the playoffs in the West only required 41 wins last season. That number is likely to be about 45 in 2017-18, and a dropoff from 51 wins to 44 is not out of the question if the Jazz lose Hayward.
Going from 31 wins to 50-plus, as Minnesota would have to do for a top-four finish, is a stretch. But the Timberwolves certainly could make the playoffs. Oklahoma City at least should maintain sixth place, having acquired Paul George, and re-signing Blake Griffin will keep the Clippers in the playoffs, even though they lost Chris Paul to Houston.
The Jazz's outlook will change dramatically if they keep Hayward. At that point, the conversation would switch to whether or not they could finish in the top four behind Golden State, Houston and San Antonio. That's reasonable. And that's how much value Hayward holds as of Monday.
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