This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2016, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.
From a safe distance, the Utah Utes watched Saturday as some madness unfolded in college football, with so many upsets occurring that they almost offset themselves.
No. 4 Washington lost to USC in the Pac-12's most important game last weekend, following Utah's 49-26 win at Arizona State on Thursday. Yet because No. 2 Clemson and No. 3 Michigan also lost, the Huskies' College Football Playoff chances were not crushed — and that's critical to Utah's Rose Bowl hopes. Or is it?
My analysis of the Utes regarding the Rose Bowl has focused on what happens if they lose the Pac-12 championship game. But they might win it. Utah also technically remains in Playoff contention. The Utes should be about No. 10 in Tuesday's standings, and as Saturday's example showed, just about anything can happen in the next three weeks.
As for the realistic issue of the Rose Bowl, though, here are the two possibilities:
Utah could win the Pac-12 championship game.
Because of USC's surge, Utah (5-2 in conference play) probably needs to beat Oregon and Colorado to share first place in the Pac-12 South with the Trojans and possibly Colorado. The Utes would earn the title via any necessary tiebreakers, thanks to their rally for a 31-27 defeat of USC in September and a win over Colorado.
USC (6-2) concludes Pac-12 play Saturday at UCLA. The Trojans would win a tiebreaker with Colorado (6-1), which hosts Washington State and Utah.
In any case, the South winner will have a great shot at the Pac-12 title, with Washington appearing vulnerable after its 26-13 loss to USC. The Huskies couldn't run the ball against USC, quarterback Jake Browning struggled when the Trojans pressured him and the Huskies may have lost star linebacker Azeem Victor to injury.
The Huskies (6-1) host Arizona State this week, then visit Washington State (7-0) on Nov. 25 — the day before the Utah-Colorado game — with the Pac-12 North title presumably going to the winner. The Apple Cup looks like a tossup right now. Which team would Utah want to meet in the championship game? A case could be made for either opponent. What's certain is a Pac-12 title would send Utah to the Rose Bowl.
Utah could lose to Washington in the Pac-12 championship game.
Back to my original premise: If Washington wins out, including another victory over Utah on Dec. 2 in Santa Clara, Calif., there should be a sufficient shakeup in front of the Huskies for them to move into the top four of the final CFP standings. The biggest question for a 12-1 Washington team would be its strength of schedule, but wins over Washington State and Utah would help.
Utah, in that case, would be 10-3 with two losses to Washington. If the Rose Bowl needs a replacement for the Pac-12 champion, organizers are obligated to pick the conference's next-highest-ranked team in the CFP standings. That's a good thing for the Utes, because if the choice were subjective, USC would be attractive.
Utah's biggest fear in this scenario, then, is USC's overtaking the Utes in the final CFP standings. Could that happen? Maybe. If they beat UCLA and Notre Dame, the Trojans would be 9-3 with a win over Washington. Utah would be 10-3 with a win over USC. Let's just say that would be an interesting discussion for the CFP committee, which historically — meaning all three years of its existence — has treated the Utes very well.
Twitter: @tribkurt