This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2016, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.
This Saturday will be one of a few instances in which a Utah-UCLA game doesn't seem to have championship implications for both teams.
In falling at Washington State late Saturay, the Bruins (3-4, 1-3) have gone from being one of the favorites to win the South Division to fifth place, above only Arizona. USC (4-3, 3-2), another preseason contender, has righted the ship and is only one game back, but the Utes own a tiebreaker over the Trojans that seems increasingly crucial.
At the top, No. 19 Utah (6-1, 3-1) is tied with surprising Colorado (5-2, 3-1), which seems to be a legitimate force in the league, but hasn't been knocking on the door the way the Utes have for the previous two seasons.
It's shaping up to be Utah's year to win the South, but can the Utes make it to the finish line intact?
It's a question worth asking as injuries continue to pile up and the program skirts by competition perceived to be lesser. While the program has reached 6-1 for the second straight year — a position in which a Power 5 team can still entertain notions of the College Football Playoff and New Years' Six Bowls — there is no aura of impenetrability. In a playoff system in which a small committee selects who is in and who is out, perception matters, and Utah stock isn't soaring the way it was last season, when the Utes reached as high as No. 3 in the country.
Coach Kyle Whittingham aluded to that idea in the aftermath of Utah's 19-14 victory over Oregon State, which the team achieved despite throwing for under 50 yards, missing red zone attempts, and giving up a late touchdown drive to a third-string quarterback.
"We have some tough games ahead of us looking us in the face," he said. "We've got to learn from what we didn't do well today, which was a lot. Lot of learning today."
Utah's narrow results and relatively weak non-conference schedule haven't done much to punch up its believability as a true titan in the postseason picture. In ESPN's Football Power Index, USC is the highest-ranked South Division team at No. 13. Colorado, unranked this week, is No. 15. UCLA is No. 26.
Utah, South Division co-leader, is at No. 41.
FPI predicts Utah to finish the schedule at 2-3, with losses at UCLA, to Washington and at Colorado. It projects Utah's probability of winning the league at a meager 2.1 percent.
Other rankings that utilize analytics are similarly unfavorable: The Sagarin ratings (38), Football Outsider's S&P+ ratings (48) and the Massey computer composite (28) have the Utes out of the top 25.
These skeptical perceptions of Utah stem in part from a statistical profile that doesn't measure up to a team with a 6-1 record or a No. 19 national ranking. Utah's offense is averaging only 5.4 yards per play, ranked No. 71 against FBS competition — and opponents are actually averaging better (5.5 ypp) against the Utes. While Utah does have a top-20 scoring defense (18.3 ppg), it is also middle-of-the-pack in scoring offense (26.7 ppg, No. 79) and total offense (417.9 ypg, No. 61). Other statistics look very marginal, such as 49 penalties (No. 104) for 405 yards lost (No. 93).
One area Utah has been substantially below average is in the red zone, both on offense and defense. The Utes are ranked dead last in the Pac-12 in both categories, as opponents come away with points 91 percent of the time they reach the red zone, while Utah has converted fewer than 75 percent of opportunities into points. The Utes missed out again against the Beavers on Saturday, a fumbled snap on fourth down stalling out a drive five yards out from the end zone.
There are factors beyond Utah's control: injuries. The already long list grew longer Saturday with serious looking injuries to safety Marcus Williams, who walked out of Reser Stadium wearing a leg brace, and linebacker Sunia Tauteoli, who was carted off the field. Added to Tim Patrick, who played sparingly Saturday, and Harrison Handley, who was missing Saturday, and the running back and center positions that make up a ward of injured, the Utes have lacked some of their best playmakers in recent weeks. They probably deserve credit for winning in spite of the mounting absences.
"Being bowl eligible is great," senior receiver Cory Butler-Byrd said. "We gotta keep going so we can be in one of the big bowls."
But is it sustainable? Utah's potentially challenging game at the Rose Bowl this weekend will be followed by a date with unbeaten No. 5 Washington at home. Only then will the Utes get a much-needed bye to salve their wounded roster and rest.
It will require stamina, but the Utes hope they can keep flying in the face of the numbers. The first CFP polls come out Nov. 1, and if Utah can sustain its winning ways the next two weeks, the Utes will be included — in spite of their issues.
Twitter: @kylegoon —
Pac-12 standings
Conference Overall
North W L PF PA W L PF PA
Washington 3 0 149 55 6 0 297 85
Washington St. 3 0 120 70 4 2 246 152
Stanford 2 2 71 109 4 2 114 132
California 1 2 113 121 3 3 254 240
Oregon St. 1 2 67 110 2 4 151 185
Oregon 0 3 92 162 2 4 221 251
South W L PF PA W L PF PA
Utah 3 1 109 92 6 1 187 128
Colorado 3 1 145 81 5 2 273 140
Southern Cal 3 2 147 109 4 3 198 168
Arizona St. 2 2 110 142 5 2 254 238
UCLA 1 3 99 96 3 4 182 162
Arizona 0 4 89 164 2 5 183 231
Saturday's games
Southern Cal 48, Arizona 14
Utah 19, Oregon St. 14
Stanford 17, Notre Dame 10
Colorado 40, Arizona State 16
Washington State 27, UCLA 21
Friday's game
Oregon at California, 8:30 p.m.
Oct. 22 games
Colorado at Stanford, 1 p.m.
Utah at UCLA, 2 p.m.
Oregon State at Washington, 4:30 p.m.
Washington State at Arizona State, 8 p.m.