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Provo • Worrying in late September about their prospects of getting to six wins and becoming bowl eligible hasn't been a thing for the BYU Cougars for more than a decade.

But first-year coach Kalani Sitake's club couldn't be blamed, before the leaves start falling off the trees, for at least harboring that fear of missing postseason play for the first time since 2004. The Cougars 1-3 start and October's devilish lineup of Michigan State, Mississippi State and Boise State — with the Spartans and Broncos on the road — could turn their season into a nightmare.

In other words, if the Cougars lose to the red-hot and undefeated Toledo Rockets (3-0) on Friday night at LaVell Edwards Stadium, watch out. Drop this one, and they easily could be 1-7 heading into their Halloween weekend bye.

Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. and the annual pre-LDS General Conference game will be televised by ESPN2.

"This is do-or-die right now," said BYU linebacker Fred Warner. "This is the most important game of the season. We pride ourselves on winning the games that we need to win going into October, and this is definitely one of those, a must-win."

While not quite ready to talk about postseason prospects — or lack thereof — and bowl eligibility, senior receiver Mitchell Juergens agreed with Warner.

"Every game is do-or-die, but this game especially," Juergens said. "We are coming home, and it is definitely a must-win for us. We need some momentum in the win column. … We are getting better, but we do need to get over that hump, and this is the time. This is the week."

Sitake has spent the short week of preparation telling his players that Toledo, which conveniently is coming off a bye and has been getting ready for the marquee game on its schedule for nearly two weeks, is fully capable of handing the Cougars their fourth loss. The Rockets went 10-2 last year and beat No. 18 Arkansas of the SEC, the Big 12's Iowa State, and No. 24 Temple. They've walloped Arkansas State, Maine and Fresno State by a combined score of 128-30 this season and feature the national leader in passing efficiency, junior QB Logan Woodside.

"They are one of the best teams in the country," said assistant head coach Ed Lamb. "In my mind, they should be ranked. They haven't had a close game. They haven't had a close half. They destroyed all three teams that they've played."

Granted, they haven't played the likes of Arizona, Utah, UCLA and West Virginia, as BYU has, but they are seventh in the nation in total defense (251.7 ypg.) and sixth in total offense (563.7 ypg.).

"They are a lot better than people think," Warner said. "They are like the Boise State of the MAC."

Obviously, this isn't the breather the Cougars and their improving offense were hoping to get after facing four Power 5 schools the past four weeks. Toledo has stopped opponents from getting a first down in 22 of 41 possessions.

"Their record speaks for itself, from last year and this year," said BYU defensive coordinator Ilaisa Tuiaki. "They've got good personnel. They have great execution. They have a really good [offensive] scheme, and you can tell, on film, that they are a well-coached team."

Said Lamb: "You can tell their players take great pride in playing for Toledo."

For the Cougars, the task will be getting consistent play in all three phases — offense, defense and special teams — Sitake said. Special teams have played well, while the defense looked good the first three games before taking a step back against WVU. The offense finally got it going against the Mountaineers, putting up 521 yards.

"Again, we executed," quarterback Taysom Hill said. "I think it gives us a lot of confidence going into the rest of the season that if we execute and if we run our routes the way we are supposed to, and we get the ball out on time, and we protect, we are going to be really difficult to stop."

Twitter: @drewjay —

BYU vs. Toledo

P At LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo

Kickoff • 8:15 p.m.

TV • ESPN2

Radio • 1160 AM, 102.7 FM, Sirius XM 143

Records • BYU 1-3, Toledo 3-0

Series history • First meeting

About the Rockets • Despite having just three returning starters, their defense has not allowed an opponent to gain more than 266 yards yet this season. … Offensively, they lead the nation in successful third-down attempts, converting 28 of 47 for 59.6 percent. … They have not given up a sack this season and have only given up a sack in three of their last 15 games. … Junior WR Cody Thompson leads the nation in yards-per-catch, 32.8.

About the Cougars • Jamaal Williams needs 512 yards to become the all-time leading rusher in school history. The senior RB has rushed for 417 yards on 79 attempts in 2016. … Safety Kai Nacua is first in the NCAA in interceptions with three, and has 11 in his career. … Sophomore LB Butch Pau'u is 13th in the country in total tackles with 42, and made his first career interception in last week's 35-32 loss to West Virginia. … Senior NT Travis Tuiloma is expected to play in 14-15 plays in his second game back from a foot injury.