This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2016, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.
Just like a year ago, the odds of the Utah Jazz pulling off NBA draft lottery magic are slim indeed.
The numbers say it all: Utah has just an 0.7 percent chance of obtaining the top pick, and just a 2.5 percent opportunity of leaping into the top three.
So Jazz fans should expect their team to stay at No. 12, because the chances of that happening on Tuesday are almost overwhelming. The good news? Utah's front office clearly thinks there are good players to be had at that spot, and last year's selection, Trey Lyles, is proof of that.
The better news for Jazz fans is the needs of the team are a little more free-agent oriented than in the past. The Jazz have a set starting five and have bench pieces. Shooting and depth are needs that can be addressed in July's free agency, all of which means Utah can safely select the best available player on the board.
Locally, in other words, this lottery shapes up as something of a formality. The biggest intrigue may surround how newly minted team president Steve Starks projects on the television camera.
Nationally, the intrigue runs deep. In a draft where Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram project as franchise-altering talents, the balance of the NBA could significantly change if the right team gets the right bounce. Or the wrong bounce.
The Boston Celtics, who won 48 games this season, finished fifth in the Eastern Conference and hold the Brooklyn Nets' unprotected first-round pick, the product of trading aging stars Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce to Brooklyn a few years ago. That pick is slated third overall with a 15.6 percent chance of becoming first overall. With the top selection, the Celtics could potentially add Simmons or Ingram to an already deep and talented group. Or former BYU star and current Celtics decision maker Danny Ainge could trade the pick for a star. Either way, Boston could get a lot better in a hurry.
The Los Angeles Lakers, who won a mere 17 games, are slotted in the second spot. They are also holding their collective breath, because if the franchise falls two spots in the lottery, that No. 4 pick goes to the Philadelphia 76ers. So the Lakers could get Simmons or Ingram and add a real talent to a young core, or they could come away with nothing, which would be a back-breaker to the franchise — as Lakers general manager Mitch Kupchak has readily acknowledged.
"That's how you have to plan, yes," Kupchak told ESPN.com last week. "And I'm fine either way. I would love to have the pick. I want to keep the 32nd pick. But you have to look at it both ways, and if it doesn't work out where we get the pick, we get the pick next year, and we still have the ability to improve the team this summer."
It gets better. Current Eastern Conference postseason finalists, the Toronto Raptors, own Denver's pick. And the Nuggets hold the New York Knicks' pick, which means the Knicks have nothing to show for a bad season.
The New Orleans Pelicans could potentially add Simmons or Ingram to current superstar Anthony Davis. The Chicago Bulls, in addition to their own pick, would receive Sacramento's pick if it falls outside of the top 10.
The Minnesota Timberwolves already have Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins. Imagine Simmons or Ingram with that franchise. No wonder Scott Layden and Tom Thibodeau jumped at the chance to head to Minneapolis.
The Phoenix Suns are guaranteed two lottery picks. And last, but certainly not least, there's a decent chance the Sixers find themselves with two top-five picks. One of the NBA's worst franchises over the last few years, Philly could get better in a hurry.
It has been quite a while since an NBA lottery drawing's had the potential to feature as many twists or turns as this one. Multiple teams could lose their lottery pick. Multiple playoff teams could garner the top pick and make a good roster an even better one.
For 30 minutes on ESPN, it should make for some riveting television.
twitter: @tjonessltrib —
Lottery update
The local report • The Utah Jazz are expected to land the No. 12 pick for the second consecutive season. They could move up, but the odds are slim.
Boom or bust • The Los Angeles Lakers are slated to pick in the second slot. But if their pick falls to the fourth spot, it goes to the Philadelphia 76ers. The same could happen to the Sacramento Kings, if their pick lands outside of the top 10.
A lot of chances • The Phoenix Suns are guaranteed two picks. With the right bounces, the Sixers and the Chicago Bulls could join them.
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NBA Draft Lottery
P Tuesday, 6 p.m. MDT
TV • ESPN —
Chances at the top prize
Team Odds
Philadelphia 76ers 25 percent
Los Angeles Lakers - * 19.9 percent Boston Celtics - x 15.6 percent
Phoenix Suns 11.9 percent
Minnesota Timberwolves 8.8 percent
New Orleans Pelicans 6.3 percent
New York Knicks - y 4.3 percent
Sacramento Kings 2.8 percent
Denver Nuggets 1.7 percent
Milwaukee Bucks 1.1 percent
Orlando Magic 0.8 percent
Utah Jazz 0.7 percent
Washington Wizards - z 0.6 percent
Chicago Bulls 0.5 percent
* - to Philadelphia if not top-3
x - via Brooklyn
y - to Denver or Toronto
z - to Phoenix if not top-9
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NBA Draft Lottery
P Tuesday, approximately 5:45 p.m. MDT TV • ESPN