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Coach Larry Krystkowiak made a slightly uncharacteristic move last week: Before the Washington game, he looked ahead — pretty far ahead — to the Pac-12 Tournament.
At the time, the Huskies were one of the top four teams in the league. Krystkowiak pointed out to the Utes that in beating them on Wednesday night (which they did, 90-82), Utah would hold a tiebreaker for one of the league's top teams when the time came to determine tournament byes.
"You start looking at some tiebreaker situations, and that's a pretty valid thing to talk about," Krystkowiak said Monday. "Beyond that, it's pretty much just trying to get through the next day."
Halfway through February and with only five regular-season games left, a lot of eyes are drifting ahead. The Utes stand at 19-7, their 8-5 league record tying them for third place with Colorado behind 9-4 Arizona and Oregon, and seemingly assured of an NCAA Tournament berth.
Projections have shifted from guesses to a somewhat mechanized process: many of the results are in place. At No. 16 in RPI, the Utes are 5-5 against the RPI's top 50 teams and 12-7 against the top 100.
A mock selection committee of journalists and commentators met last week in Indianapolis and slotted Utah as a 4 seed. Other prominent projections have Utah between a 6 seed (ESPN) and a 4 seed (USA Today, CBS Sports). According to bracket aggregation site BracketMatrix.com, Utah's average seeding is 5.52.
The Utes' remaining five games are all against top 100 RPI teams, with games at USC, then home against Arizona and Colorado all coming against top-tier Pac-12 opponents. While there won't be any gimmes, Utah also doesn't risk much: Losses on the back end won't necessarily look so bad on Selection Sunday given the quality of the opponents.
Of course, the Utes would like to do themselves a favor and take all of the guesswork out of it: Regular season and conference tournament championships are still on the table.
"You don't play out of fear, and have concerns if things don't go well," Krystkowiak said. "I think you step up to the plate, take a crack at it and let it fly."
The upcoming trip through Southern California is Utah's last of the regular season, which will give the team two solid weeks at home to heal, rest and study leading up to the rigors of March.
But this trip is no cakewalk. The Utes haven't won at UCLA since 1961, and the Trojans are one of the remaining teams with a perfect (14-0) home record. Sophomore center Jakob Poeltl said of last year's loss at Pauley Pavilion that the Utes were "not ready" to play the game.
The Utes hope that this year is different. They're in solid position to make a run at the conference title with two games remaining against two of the other top four Pac-12 teams, and their last three games at the Huntsman Center. Krystkowiak said he thought the Utes had a chance to "learn all our lessons," and hopes all the regular season bumps translate into a more mature, more composed group down the stretch. The players hope so, too.
"I think if we end the season strong, we can definitely accomplish that and maybe even more — you never know," Poeltl said. "It's not like a focus of mine, that I look at the standings and am like, 'if we beat them and they lose.' I don't worry about that too much, but it's something I look at."
Twitter: @kylegoon —
Utah's seed projections
At 19-7 with five games left, most bracket projections figure the Utes will grab a middle-to-high seed in the NCAA Tournament. A look at where Utah stands:
ESPN • 6 seed vs. Pittsburgh in Providence, R.I.
USA Today • 4 seed vs. Arkansas Little-Rock in Denver
CBS Sports • 4 seed vs. Akron in Denver