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Corvallis, Ore. • The spike tells the story.
Salt Lake City hoops statistician Ken Pomeroy publishes win probability charts with every game recap, and Utah's game versus Oregon State is a devastating one — with one-tenth of a second remaining, a Utes victory went from a 66-percent mark of probability to virtually nil. It serves as a reminder how improbable Utah's final foul on Stephen Thompson Jr., the freshman who won it for the Beavers at the line, truly was.
But the chart also speaks to why the Utes (17-6, 6-4) lost — and why coach Larry Krystkowiak was so frustrated, hands on his hips and mouth pulled taut in a grim expression, as he strode off Ralph Miller Court on Thursday night. While the 71-69 loss surely wouldn't have happened without senior Brandon Taylor's unthinkable error of fouling a half-court shooter, it also wouldn't have happened if the Utes had hung on to a 10-point lead it took with 7:44 remaining.
Utah's win probability at that marker: better than 92 percent. The team's stumbling finish to the game was most improbable of all, prompting Krystkowiak to compare his team to "point-shavers."
"We put ourselves in position to win a game on the road," he said, matter-of-factly "and we certainly should've won it."
The closer the Utes got to the finish line, the more the ball seemed to slip from their fingers.
In the second half, Utah had nine turnovers. Seven of them came in the final seven minutes, and all of them came from the five starters: Jakob Poeltl and Kyle Kuzma each had two while Taylor, Jordan Loveridge, Lorenzo Bonam each had one.
Only two of the turnovers counted as Oregon State steals. Others were tossed around carelessly out of bounds, leading to the Utes exchanging heated words with one another as they headed back on defense.
The shift was monumental: From the point when Utah nursed a 10-point lead, it took only five shots for the rest of the game and made only the last one (a Taylor 3-pointer). In the same stretch, Oregon State turned the ball over only once and went 7 for 13, taking control of the game in the final minute with a 3-point gap that Utah had to claw back from.
The Beavers made their four final shots, and then Thompson — who had spent the previous week in a free throw funk after falling victim to a Michael Phelps-led Curtain of Distraction at Arizona State — sealed it at the stripe.
"It's unfortunate that it comes down to one [mistake] that's going to get magnified, but there was plenty of errors to go around," Krystkowiak said. "In the second half, we just got too sloppy with it and lost our poise."
It's not the first time Krystkowiak has found himself fretting over lost poise in the bowels of an opposing arena. The game bore similarities to Utah's 70-68 overtime loss at Stanford. The notable departure was that Utah did what it had to do at the free throw line: Loveridge hit all three free throws with 2.2 seconds left (needing all of them to win) to cap a 15-for-18 night at the line.
Utah's challenge on Super Bowl Sunday against Oregon will be to avoid its first back-to-back losses since that road trip a month ago. The Utes followed up the disaster in Palo Alto with a double-digit loss to Cal. Last time Utah played the Ducks, it was an 18-point defeat.
If there's any consolation for Utah, it's got its work cut out for it ahead: It seems unlikely that the odds will take such a sharp turn two games in a row. But it's also unlikely that the Utes will be satisfied to lean on the numbers after another late road unraveling.
Twitter: @kylegoon —
Ugly finish
• Utes had seven turnovers in final 6:56 against Oregon State.
• OSU was 7 for 13 in last 7:25; Utah was 1 for 5.