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Having witnessed Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos at their absolute worst, I like their chances of winning Super Bowl 50.

Instead of being scarred by what unfolded that afternoon in mid-November, when Kansas City's Alex Smith looked like the only quarterback worthy of playing in a Super Bowl, I'm encouraged about the Broncos. Manning is more healthy now, and Denver's defense is markedly better than the group that took the field two years ago against Seattle on this stage.

"The Carolina offense has not seen a defense like this," said CBS analyst Phil Simms.

And that's why the Broncos have a shot, in a low-scoring game. That defense won me over in November, even in a 29-13 loss to the Chiefs. Manning played horribly, amid injuries that should have sidelined him that day and did cause him to miss the next six games. Yet even with Manning throwing four interceptions (with five completions) in two-plus quarters, Denver's defense was not overwhelmed. In building a 22-0 lead, the Chiefs kicked five field goals.

The Broncos demonstrated that trait of toughness in the AFC championship game, holding New England to 18 points. So no way will the Panthers destroy this defense.

"There is no weakness," Simms said in a media roundtable. "Show me a weakness on their [defense], and I'll tell you you're wrong."

There's certainly no comparison of this defense to the one the Broncos trotted out against Seattle in a 43-8 loss two years ago. Key players including linebacker Von Miller and cornerback Chris Harris Jr. were injured, and the Broncos have made major upgrades at other positions since then, becoming the NFL's No. 1-ranked defense. And these guys are motivated by everything they're hearing about what Cam Newton and the Panthers may do to them.

"Definitely think we're getting underdogged on the defense," Harris said. "People really, truly, I don't think they've analyzed everything that we've done on defense this whole year. We've got ugly wins. We grind them out."

That's a compliment, and the Broncos can do it again. Think about this: Sunday's over-under total is 45 points, suggesting a score such as 24-21. Could Manning and his offense produce 24 points? Of course. In the playoffs, the Broncos have scored 23 against Pittsburgh and 20 against New England, as Manning has gone interception-free and the offense has followed through on the defense's work.

Newton will make some plays Sunday, but the Broncos' pass rushers will hound him as they did to New England's Tom Brady and the Panthers will have trouble running the ball. They'll get frustrated by a defense that's not complex, just effective, as coordinated by Wade Phillips. Broncos defensive lineman Derek Wolfe describes the scheme as "See ball, get ball."

"Wade's pretty simple," said Denver coach Gary Kubiak. "We don't do a lot of things, but he's very aggressive. He does a great job of putting players in position to be successful. It gets them excited to play by how he moves them around."

Phillips has gone from being unemployed last season to masterminding a Super Bowl defense as an assistant coach for a franchise that once fired him as a head coach. That's life in the NFL.

If the Broncos win Sunday, Manning will have done his part and he'll have the option of retiring on top, in the tradition of Denver quarterback John Elway — who's now the Broncos' executive vice president of football operations, responsible for bringing in all of this defensive talent. "If their defense dominates and wins this game," Simms said, "it's going to go down as one of the greatest ever."

That will be a credit to Elway, who recognized the need to stop the other guys, not just outscore them. And that defense will come through in the end.

Newton grew up idolizing former Tennessee quarterback Steve McNair, so his strongest Super Bowl memory is how former University of Utah receiver Kevin Dyson caught McNair's pass and was tackled at the 1-yard line on the final play of a 23-16 loss to St. Louis. That's how I've got Super Bowl 50 ending, with Denver's defense deciding the outcome: Broncos 24, Panthers 20.

Twitter: @tribkurt