For an insight into the potential madness awaiting this NFL offseason, scan the top of the standings 11-plus weeks into the season. Alex Smith, Case Keenum, Blake Bortles, Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees quarterback five of the league's eight division-leading teams. All five, with varying degrees and for varying reasons, face uncertainty about their place of employment next season.
The future of the most prominent position in American team sports is blurry. Once NFL quarterbacks reach a basic level of proficiency, they tend to stay in one place. Even mediocre quarterbacks are hard to find — and therefore difficult to improve upon — so teams in control of merely half-decent quarterbacks cling to them. The better passers are seldom allowed to leave.
The coming offseason, then, will stand out for its quarterback upheaval. Contractual statues, health, age, disillusionment and an uncommonly strong crop of draft-eligible signal callers could create the most offseason starting quarterback turnover in recent years. This season, 25 teams either kept their starting quarterback from last year or would have if not for injuries. By next year, nearly half the league could make a change.
Kirk Cousins, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Bradford, Brees and highly regarded backups Jimmy Garoppolo and AJ McCarron could all become free agents. The Bills benched Tyrod Taylor last week. The Chiefs have drafted Smith's replacement. The Bengals can extricate themselves from Andy Dalton's contract cheaply, as can the Cardinals with Carson Palmer. Roethlisberger has publicly flirted with retirement. Eli Manning, at 36, is presiding over a 2-9 team and one of the worst offenses in the NFL.
The gaggle of likely or potentially available quarterbacks will create a rash of teams looking to change. Jacksonville has waited for Bortles to fulfill the promise he showed as a third overall pick since 2014, and despite the Jaguars' 7-3 record forged on sterling defense, they are still waiting. The Giants will need a quarterback for years beyond 2018, if not the season itself. The Jets have no long-term or short-term clarity. The Browns, having passed on drafting Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson in consecutive years, remain in the quarterbacking wilderness. The Broncos have toggled between three unappealing choices.
The moves this offseason, in all likelihood, will be a series of small tremors rather than massive quakes, like Brett Favre or Peyton Manning switching teams late in their careers. Brees would be the likeliest candidate to make such an impact, but he has indicated he will not fully explore his free agency. "I don't plan on leaving New Orleans ever," Brees told a San Diego radio station earlier this month.
Those kind of seismic quarterback moves are exceedingly rare. The Packers moved on from Favre when they had Aaron Rodgers in the wings. For the Broncos to get Peyton Manning out of Indianapolis before the 2012 season, he had to miss a season after career-threatening neck surgery before the Colts selected Andrew Luck, one of the most heralded quarterback prospects in a generation, with the first overall pick.
The most significant deal for the 2018 quarterback market already may have happened. At the trade deadline, the 49ers acquired Garoppolo, Tom Brady's heralded backup, from the Patriots. The quick-strike move took one of the most sought-after quarterbacks off the market, removing a hopeful contingency from the minds of several front offices.
For a brief period, 49ers general manager John Lynch reopened the possibility of Garoppolo's availability. Lynch responded to an ESPN report this month that the 49ers could use the franchise tag on Garoppolo — and then trade him — with a shrug. "If all you're doing is acquiring a chip that a lot of people see as valuable," Lynch said, "then it's a good deal for that."
Lynch clarified the comment this week, indicating the 49ers solidly view Garoppolo as their franchise quarterback and calling the response, "probably a stupid thing to say." It was, most likely, a clumsy attempt by a first-year GM to gain leverage in long-term contract discussions. Still, the idea that Garoppolo would hold so much value underscores the league's quarterback outlook.
Safely assuming Garoppolo stays in San Francisco, the most significant quarterback decisions rests with the Redskins. It would be financially imprudent — and unprecedented — for Washington to use a third consecutive franchise tag on Cousins. He clearly would be the most coveted quarterback, and given the rarity of a consensus top-12 quarterback in his prime becoming available in free agency, he could sign the richest contract in NFL history.
There would be no shortage of suitors — the Jaguars, Cardinals and Broncos, among others, have rosters expected to win with serious quarterback questions. The Steelers would join the mix if Roethlisberger, who openly contemplated retirement last summer, decides to walk away.
If any team best epitomizes the three-dimensional possibilities of the season, it's the Vikings. Minnesota entered the year expecting it would have to choose between two free agent quarterbacks in Bridgewater and Bradford. Now, after Keenum has won seven consecutive starts and pushed the Vikings to 9-2, they may have to choose among three.
The Vikings still view Bridgewater, just 25 and a first-round pick in 2014, as their franchise quarterback. But while he is active again, he has not appeared in a game since the catastrophic knee injury he suffered just before the 2016 season. The injury prompted the Vikings to trade for Bradford. When Bradford suffered a knee injury after an excellent Week 1 performance this season, Bridgewater had not yet fully recovered. The Vikings turned to Keenum, whom they had signed hoping for a serviceable backup. He has become one of the league's unexpected sensations, rating second in ESPN's Total Quarterback Rating metric.
Last winter, before the batty developments of this season, Vikings GM Rick Spielman took stock of his quarterback situation. "Everything is in flux right now," he said. "I'll just leave it at that." The same sentiment still applies — not only to his team but across the entire league.