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Yes, Utah may beat Arizona and Colorado. UCLA may beat USC, and then lose to Stanford. Arizona may beat Arizona State.
Utah may then beat Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game and earn a spot in the Fiesta Bowl.
As Whittingham put it Monday: "If this, this, this, this, and this, and this and this happens, then we've got a shot."
Maybe 1 in 20.
Should none of that happen, it's about as likely Utah will return to Arizona for the Cactus Bowl.
Plan, if you must start planning, on something in-between.
The Pac-12 order of selection goes: 1. College Football Playoff and/or "New Year's Six" game, 2. Alamo Bowl, 3. Holiday Bowl, 4. Foster Farms Bowl, 5. Sun Bowl, 6. Las Vegas Bowl, 7. Cactus Bowl.
Arizona State's loss to Oregon State late last Saturday makes it improbable that two Pac-12 teams will qualify for New Year's Six games, even with as many as 10 Pac-12 teams being bowl-eligible.
For the Pac-12-affiliated bowls, that makes it a magical season.
"I think this is as good a year as we can remember," said John Saccenti, executive director of the Las Vegas Bowl, which right now stands to include a ranked Pac-12 team.
"This is awesome," said Holiday Bowl executive director Bruce Binkowski. "There's a plethora of good teams that we're going to be able to choose from."
It also makes it as busy a year as any in recent memory, as bowl staff try to determine which among those nine remaining teams will bring the most fans and generate the most buzz.
Representing one of the Pac-12's smaller markets, Utah loses some points head-to-head against the likes of UCLA and USC. Binkowski admits that all things being equal, it's going to be hard for the Holiday Bowl to pass on bringing USC down the I-5 for the first time in its history.
But the 2014 Utes also have a few things arguing in their favor:
They're pretty good • "I'd call Utah a solid football team in all phases," says Alamo Bowl president Derrick Fox. Utah has beaten two ranked teams, taken another to overtime, and played No. 3 Oregon tough until the fourth quarter. The Utes have excellent special teams and a stout defense, and while the offense has been short on yards, they've managed their share of late-game heroics.
They're pleased with this season • Particularly if Utah wins out (its only hope at the top few bowls), there's value to the fact that this season exceeded expectations. Would fans of UCLA, a popular College Football Playoff pick before the season began, be as excited about the opportunity to watch their 10th win? "The last thing we ever really want is a team that is expected to do great things, and then they lose three or four games," said Saccenti (for the record, not talking about UCLA, but generally).
They're hungry for a bowl • A few years back, Utah's fan base not only expected to reach a bowl game, it expected to win it. Three years between games has changed that. "The fact that they've not been to a bowl game in a couple of years, while I know that's not a goal from the school's perspective, obviously, from a bowl's perspective, you can see the excitement," Fox said.
Matchups matter will be taken into account, too. For instance, the Alamo Bowl — which will have a team selection member at Saturday's game — hopes to find a team that will play an entertaining game against the Big 12's No. 2 (right now, probably No. 12 Kansas State, since No. 5 TCU and No. 6 Baylor are on track for New Year's Six games).
And relationships count for something.
Binkowski can attest that Utah fans travel well because he also manages the Poinsettia Bowl, which featured the Utes in 2007 and 2009. He knows athletic director Chris Hill, and Kyle Whittingham is a Holiday Bowl hall of famer after playing in the game four times at BYU.
We may never know what ultimately serves as the decider.
What we know is this: Whichever bowl selects the Utes will be the best one since 2011.
Twitter: @matthew_piper —
Utah bowl projections
CBS Sports • Las Vegas Bowl, against Boise State
ESPN • Sun Bowl, against Miami
SB Nation • Sun Bowl, against Miami
Sporting News • Sun Bowl, against Boston College
Phil Steele • Sun Bowl, against Miami —
2014 Pac-12 bowl tie-ins
No. 1 • College Football Playoff or remaining "New Years Six" game*
No. 2 • Alamo Bowl: Friday, Jan. 2, at San Antonio's Alamodome, against the Big 12 No. 2
No. 3 • Holiday Bowl: Saturday, Dec. 27, at San Diego's Qualcomm Stadium, against the Big Ten No. 4
No. 4 • Foster Farms Bowl: Tuesday, Dec. 30, at Santa Clara, Calif.'s Levi's Stadium, against the Big Ten No. 6
No. 5 • Sun Bowl: Saturday, Dec. 27, at El Paso, Texas' Sun Bowl Stadium, against the ACC No. 4
No. 6 • Las Vegas Bowl: Saturday, Dec. 20, at Las Vegas' Sam Boyd Stadium, against the Mountain West No. 1
No. 7 • Cactus Bowl: Friday, Jan. 2, at Tempe, Ariz.'s Sun Devil Stadium, against the Big 12 No. 6
* The conference-affiliated Rose Bowl is a CFB semifinal this year, leaving the Cotton Bowl, Fiesta Bowl and Peach Bowl as possible destinations, should the Pac-12 winner not be selected in the committee's final four. —
No. 15 Arizona at No. 20 Utah
P Saturday, 1:30 p.m.
TV • ESPN