This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2014, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.

Going into the BYU-Utah State football game on the first Friday of October, it seemed possible that one of those teams would be reeling at some point this month.

But not both of them.

BYU was riding high; USU was trying to find itself. Everything changed that night in Provo — but only temporarily so for the Aggies, who now are down to their No. 3 quarterback and fighting for bowl eligibility as they host UNLV on Saturday.

The Cougars, meanwhile, have lost three games in a row and are underdogs Friday night at Boise State. Utah vs. USC clearly is this week's biggest game involving a state school, because of what winning would mean to the Utes. But the other contests are important to USU and BYU, because of what losing would mean to them. First, the Friday game:

BYU at Boise State, 7 p.m. MDT, ESPN

The Cougars' season was radically altered when quarterback Taysom Hill was injured just before halftime against USU, which led 21-14. The hypothetical outcome of that game is arguable, but there's no question in my mind that BYU would have beaten Central Florida and Nevada with Hill.

Having said that, I've also cited recent examples from Utah and USU showing that losing a QB should not destroy a team's season, and Christian Stewart has played decently in the last two games. What's obvious, looking back, is that Hill masked BYU's defensive troubles. Injuries to that group have contributed to the problems, but coach Bronco Mendenhall will have to do something — whether next month or in the offseason — to change the staff structure after giving defensive coordinator Nick Howell full responsibility this year.

BYU's 37-20 rout of Boise State in Provo last October surprised me, in terms of how BYU physically handled the Broncos. That keeps me from believing Boise State could blow out BYU. But the Cougars seem too psychologically fragile at the moment to win this game.

Boise State 31, BYU 28.

UNLV at Utah State, 2 p.m. MDT, ESPNews

USU coach Matt Wells did a remarkable job last season after losing quarterback Chuckie Keeton, leading the Aggies to a Mountain West division title. He earned conference coach of the year honors and a new contract. Forgive Wells if he thought the toughest part of his tenure was over. Last year's challenge was nothing, compared to this year's.

The Aggies survived in 2013 after Darell Garretson came out of redshirt status at halftime of a loss to Boise State and then went 6-1 as a starter. USU succeeded because of a great defense and a very good offensive line that paved the way for a consistent running game. The defense remains solid, but the Aggies can't run the ball. And now they've lost Garretson, so they're back to Craig Harrison, whose struggles forced Garretson into action last October.

USU (4-3) plays 13 regular-season games and needs seven wins for bowl eligibility. That won't be easy, and it may become impossible if the Aggies can't beat UNLV. Even with outstanding receivers, generating much offense will be a chore for the Aggies. The defense will have to play even better to earn three wins — or more, if USU is to stay in the Mountain Division race. The program at least should be at a point where the Aggies can win home games against UNLV, New Mexico and San Jose State.

Utah State 17, UNLV 10.

USC at Utah, 8 p.m. MDT, Fox Sports 1

Unless there's some obvious element I'm missing, I'd say anyone would be crazy to bet on this game. USC is generally favored by one point. So will it be a true upset if No. 19 Utah beats No. 20 USC? Yes, because that means a Pac-12 home team will actually win.

Road teams are 16-7 in the conference. That's partly explained by the balance in the league and some wild finishes, but the trend has to swing back at some point.

Analyzing this game is simple — which is also why the matchup is so mysterious. If the Utes can generate any kind of passing game, running back Devontae Booker can gain consistent yardage. If USC can protect quarterback Cody Kessler from Utah's pass rush, the Trojans will thrive through the air. But who knows which of those things will happen?

Utah's three Pac-12 games have been decided by one, two and zero (as of regulation) points. Here comes another close contest.

Utah 26, USC 24.

Twitter: @tribkurt