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Ryan Crocker, the outgoing U. S. ambassador in Afghanistan, gestures during an interview with the Associated Press in Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, July 12, 2012. Fears that the exit of most foreign troops in 2014 portends another Afghan civil war or precipitous economic slide are ``unlikely scenarios,'' Ryan Crocker, the outgoing U. S. ambassador in Kabul said Thursday. (AP Photo/Musadeq Sadeq)
Moderate Taliban want peace, outgoing U.S. envoy says
Ryan Crocker » The ambassador says there will be no civil war after NATO leaves.
First Published Jul 12 2012 02:51 pm • Last Updated Jul 12 2012 02:54 pm

Kabul, Afghanistan • Moderate Taliban figures have expressed interest in the fragile peace process, the outgoing U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan said Thursday, referring to a deal that appears even more elusive with this summer’s rash of suicide attacks and bombings.

Ryan Crocker, who is retiring a year earlier than expected, also said he thinks it’s unlikely that the departure of most foreign troops by 2014 will plunge the country into another civil war or prompt a precipitous economic slide.

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"I tend to consider those unlikely scenarios," Crocker told The Associated Press in an interview at the U.S. Embassy in Kabul.

Crocker, a soft-spoken, gray-haired diplomat who became the civilian face of America’s wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, said the international community has pledged support for Afghanistan post-2014. And he said minority ethnic political leaders seem more interested in positioning themselves in the next Afghan administration than bracing for a civil war like the one that led to the rise of the Taliban after the Soviet exit in 1989.

"Politics is breaking out all over," he said of the uptick in political activity ahead of the Afghan presidential election in 2014. "You don’t see many signs of the people saying ‘Well, it’s time to start digging the trenches again.’"

Afghanistan has a history of conflict between warring ethnic factions. Pashtuns, who predominantly make up the Taliban, are the majority ethnic group in the country and have strongholds in the south. Minority factions, including the Hazaras, Uzbeks and Tajiks, are more firmly rooted in the north. Members of all the groups are part of the Afghan security forces, but some fear without the presence of international troops, the nation and its police force and army could split along ethnic lines, prompting another civil war.

The ambassador acknowledged that northern Afghanistan has a lot of militias, but said he didn’t think they threatened national unity.

"I think their primary interest has been criminal activity, rather than preparing for the next civil war, which I really don’t see coming," he said.

Crocker is retiring from the foreign service after a storied tenure in some of the world’s most dangerous hotspots. Without giving specifics, the U.S. State Department said health reasons have forced the 62-year-old envoy to leave Kabul.

Crocker, an Arabic speaker and six-time ambassador who also ran embassies in Iraq, Pakistan, Kuwait, Lebanon and Syria, came out of an earlier retirement in 2011 to take the helm of the embassy at President Barack Obama’s request.

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He granted the AP the first of several exit interviews he is scheduled to give to news organizations before leaving later this month.

The ambassador said that as the spigot of international military and civilian assistance slows, the Afghan economy will "take a dip." But he said the country will have solid security and economic assistance well beyond 2014.

"The latest I heard in terms of estimates is that the gross domestic product growth may go from a current roughly 11 percent to something like 5 percent, which still isn’t bad for a country like this," Crocker said.

On prospects for peace talks with the Taliban, Crocker said moderate Taliban figures like Agha Jan Motasim were "sending out feelers." Motasim, one of the most powerful men on the Taliban leadership council, told the AP in May that a majority of the Taliban want a peace settlement and that the movement has only a few hard-liners.

Asked if these Taliban leaders — some of whom are based in Pakistan — were worried about getting killed by the hard-liners, Crocker replied "Yep."

He said Pakistan is believed to have given some safe passage to attend reconciliation discussions.

"Let me just put it this way. We are certainly aware that senior Taliban figures have made their way to third countries. Exactly how they did that, I can’t say, but I’d like to assume that they did so with Pakistanis not interfering."

Crocker said, however, that the U.S. has not had any direct contact with the Taliban since last fall.

While Afghanistan and the U.S. seek Islamabad’s cooperation with the peace process, they are pushing the Pakistanis to stop allowing militants to hide out in their country — something Pakistan has denied.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai and U.S. officials say militants attack coalition and Afghan troops in Afghanistan and then flee across the border into Pakistan.

"These safe havens and the people who live in them are probably killing more Pakistanis than they are Afghans and other foreigners," he said. "I think we are getting to a point of real crisis. It is not getting better. It’s not even staying the same. For them (Pakistan), it is getting worse. I sense a new seriousness on their part as to what this means to them — and it isn’t good."

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