This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2010, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.

Everybody knows why Utah's football games vs. Air Force have been so close and competitive lately.

Everybody's wrong.

The reason the Utes have struggled against AFA the past four seasons is not so much the challenge of dealing the Falcons' unconventional, triple-option offense. The Utes have done very well defensively. The real issue is the Utah offense, which has failed to move the ball consistently and score against Air Force.

Beginning in 2006, these are Utah's point totals as of the last minute of regulation: 14, 12, 23 and 16. At those stages, the Utes either were behind or tied with AFA.

zThey managed to win three of the four games (including last October's overtime victory) with late drives, losing only in '07 when Brian Johnson was injured, Tommy Grady played quarterback and the Utes were turned away at the 1-yard line.

The point is, Air Force's defense kept the Falcons in those games. That's why Saturday night's meeting at the Academy is unlikely to produce another epic battle in the series.

This Utah offense is too good for that to happen.

AFA coach Troy Calhoun described Utah's receivers as "jets," and the Utes' speed will ensure that the traditional pregame flyover at Falcon Stadium is merely the warm-up for what's to come.

For all of the Falcons' admirable qualities, they do not have the athletic ability to contain Utah quarterback Jordan Wynn and his offensive weapons.

The Falcons rank 68th in the country in total defense, allowing 371 yards a game. Air Force gave up 562 yards in last week's 38-7 loss at Texas Christian, and the Horned Frogs never punted. So if Utah punter Sean Sellwood takes the field, that means the Utes are not as good as TCU, right?

Actually, I'm promising to avoid any Utah-TCU comparisons this weekend. Fashion season is over. The Utes just need to win this game and stay unbeaten, regardless of how they do it.

Elsewhere, all kinds of upset possibilities have the potential to alter the Bowl Championship Series standings and make Utah vs. TCU even bigger. Imagine this: Michigan State losing at Iowa, Missouri losing at Nebraska, Auburn losing at Mississippi and Oregon losing at USC. None of those developments is out of the question, and then who knows how high the Utes and Frogs would be ranked.

Next week's game at Rice-Eccles Stadium could have national championship impact.

Of course, the Utes could spoil everything by losing at Air Force. Utah's previous BCS teams had to fight off the Falcons to remain unbeaten in September games. The '04 Utes fell behind 14-0 before winning 49-35 and the '08 team needed a late touchdown drive to overcome its offensive mistakes and win 30-23 on the road.

This test in late October should not be as demanding, though. While raving about the Utes, Calhoun said, "The old Air Force Falcons like to play a little bit too."

But against a Utah offense that's averaging 47 points and 467 yards, a little bit of resistance will not be nearly enough.

kkragthorpe@sltrib.com Twitter: @tribkurt