Quantcast
Get breaking news alerts via email

Click here to manage your alerts
(Chris Detrick | Tribune file photo) Utes quarterback Jon Hays is sacked by BYU linebacker Spencer Hadley (2) during the game at Rice-Eccles Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 15, 2012.
Kragthorpe: Nine wins for BYU? Four for Utah? Don’t bet on it
College football » Oddsmakers’ preseason predictions might sell Utes short.
First Published Jun 30 2013 03:59 pm • Last Updated Jul 04 2013 04:18 pm

Would anyone actually bet that Utah will win fewer than five football games in 2013? Or that BYU will win nine regular-season games?

Oddsmakers believe so.

Join the Discussion
Post a Comment

As provided by pregame.com, these over-under win totals — five for Utah, 8.5 for BYU — are not predictions. They’re designed to elicit responses on both sides, and I’d say they’ve succeeded in that purpose. So I’ll examine how the oddsmakers likely arrived at those numbers.

Utah

They obviously started with the premise — flawed or not — that BYU will beat Utah on Sept. 21 in Provo, which would explain part of the discrepancy for these teams. Beyond that, Utah’s prospects are more vague than BYU’s, with a bunch of potential toss-up games.

You’d have to say Weber State is the only guaranteed win on the Utes’ schedule. But the only sure losses I see are at USC and Oregon. So that creates a group of eight games that theoretically could go either way: Utah State, Oregon State, UCLA, Stanford, Arizona State and Colorado at home and Arizona and Washington State on the road.

Victories in half of those games would make the Utes 5-7, right on the oddsmakers’ number. I’d take the over, just because a successful under bet would require the Utes going 4-8 or worse. That seems unlikely, because of Utah’s atmosphere at Rice-Eccles Stadium and the fact that such a record would be so damaging to the program.

BYU


story continues below
story continues below

Again, giving BYU a win over Utah obviously led to that 8.5 over-under total.

The Cougars will be trying to break a three-game losing streak in the series, although two of those games were decided by missed field goals at the end. If they do overcome the Utes, the Cougars would have a shot at nine wins, which basically would require beating either Texas or Boise State at home. They could absorb one loss in that pair, along with likely defeats at Wisconsin and Notre Dame.

BYU should beat Middle Tennessee, Georgia Tech and Idaho State at home. So to reach 9-3, the Cougars may have to win four road games: at Virginia, Utah State, Houston and Nevada.

I’d take the under in relation to 8.5 wins, just because there’s an opportunity to slip up at any of those venues, and 8-4 would still be a very good record against such a demanding schedule.

kkragthorpe@sltrib.com

Twitter: @tribkurt



Copyright 2014 The Salt Lake Tribune. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Top Reader Comments Read All Comments Post a Comment
Click here to read all comments   Click here to post a comment


About Reader Comments


Reader comments on sltrib.com are the opinions of the writer, not The Salt Lake Tribune. We will delete comments containing obscenities, personal attacks and inappropriate or offensive remarks. Flagrant or repeat violators will be banned. If you see an objectionable comment, please alert us by clicking the arrow on the upper right side of the comment and selecting "Flag comment as inappropriate". If you've recently registered with Disqus or aren't seeing your comments immediately, you may need to verify your email address. To do so, visit disqus.com/account.
See more about comments here.
Staying Connected
Videos
Jobs
Contests and Promotions
  • Search Obituaries
  • Place an Obituary

  • Search Cars
  • Search Homes
  • Search Jobs
  • Search Marketplace
  • Search Legal Notices

  • Other Services
  • Advertise With Us
  • Subscribe to the Newspaper
  • Access your e-Edition
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Contact a newsroom staff member
  • Access the Trib Archives
  • Privacy Policy
  • Missing your paper? Need to place your paper on vacation hold? For this and any other subscription related needs, click here or call 801.204.6100.