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The Big 12 Conference is sticking together, presumably for at least another six years.
Whether the Brigham Young Cougars become part of that remains to be seen.
While officials from the Big 12 announced Thursday the forced resignation of their commissioner and other reforms designed to stabilize the league, a report at Orangebloods.com — a reputable site dedicated to Texas athletics — cited "a key source close to the situation" as saying that the Cougars might no longer be interested in joining the league because of its recent melodrama and uncertainty.
The Cougars have not commented on their widely speculated prospects for the Big 12, however, and the report could not be independently verified.
If the Cougs do back away, the report said TCU could replace them as the favored team to become a new 10th member of the league. The Horned Frogs are planning to leave the Mountain West Conference for the Big East after this season, but the report said those plans could be on hold.
Meanwhile, officials at Oklahoma and Missouri held simultaneous news conferences Thursday to announce that commissioner Dan Beebe had resigned and that the schools are close to agreeing on a plan to stick together and strengthen the conference.
That deal involves the members agreeing to grant the Big 12 their top two "tiers" of media rights — network and cable, basically, not the third tier that includes school-specific networks such as BYUtv — for the next six years. That means that any team that leaves would forfeit its broadcast rights to the Big 12, effectively keeping it from earning any broadcast revenue for its new league.
"These are very strong handcuffs," Oklahoma president David Boren said.
Presumably, any team that joins the league would have to agree to the same terms, but the plan might actually encourage the Cougars.
For starters, it could truly stabilize the league and assure the Cougars wouldn't be stuck amid another round of unsavory realignment talk a year or two from now. The six-year span intentionally extends beyond the point when the Big 12 will have to negotiate a new broadcast deal with ABC/ESPN, too, in an effort to avoid jeopardizing that next contract with uncertainty over league membership.
"When you've granted your rights, it's very unlikely that a member would receive an invitation to another conference," Boren said.
Joining a stabilized Big 12 seemingly would deliver much more TV money than the Cougars are receiving from their eight-year contract with ESPN, too.
Under terms of that deal, the Cougars are estimated to receive between $800,000 and $1.2 million per home game televised by ABC or ESPN. Even if every home game in a standard regular season earns the high end of that revenue estimate with every home game, that's about $7.2 million — only maybe half of the $14 million to $17 million that most of the teams in the Big 12 receive from its broadcast deals.
The Big 12 officials said they are reactivating their expansion committee to find new members, though Boren said there is "no rush" and that current members agreed not to discuss pros or cons about particular prospects by name.
He also said the league can "flourish" with just nine members — Texas A&M is still expected to depart for the SEC, after Nebraska and Colorado left last summer — or expand eventually to 12 again. Athletic director DeLoss Dodds of Texas said he believes the league ultimately will choose to expand by just one team to reach 10.
"If were to rush out and get less than top-flight members, I think that would be a mistake," Boren said.
The Cougars might also be helped by the change in Big 12 leadership.
Former Big Eight Conference commissioner and respected college football consultant Chuck Neinas will become the league's interim commissioner — he's not a candidate for the permanent position — placating the Sooners and others who had demanded a change in leadership as a condition of remaining in the league.
The Sooners did not get the chance to join the Pac-12 before that league announced Tuesday that it would not expand, leaving them and fellow potential members Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State to try to work out a brighter future in the Big 12.
Sources have said Neinas would represent another voice in favor of BYU because of a long and strong relationship with the Cougars and former football coach LaVell Edwards, though that might not matter if the Cougars have been scared off by the prospect of a joining a league that just days ago seemed on the verge of collapse amid rancorous in-fighting.
And though TCU has long been viewed as a school that could do little to expand the Big 12's footprint and enhance its revenue stream, the Orangebloods.com report said it appears the league's television partners "would be comfortable enough with TCU replacing A&M to continue paying out the money in their current contracts with the league."