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Beverly Hills, Calif.

ESPN college football analyst Chris Spielman thinks the Utah football team is well on its way to becoming a national football presence, maybe even a power, by joining the Pac-12.

He thinks the future is less certain for the BYU football team as it moves into independence — and he thinks that the Cougars won't be independent for long.

And he thinks that the balance of power may be shifting away from Provo and toward Salt Lake City.

"BYU's always been the golden child. This puts Utah in the national spotlight," Spielman said. "Now, I know BYU's going independent, but I just think this is an amazing move for Utah. I think it's great for them as far as recruiting goes. It's a chance to win a national championship without having to fight the BCS, and the stigma of being from the Mountain West.

"And I think this will generate a huge fan base for Utah, because they're going to be on TV a lot more and they're going to be playing at a higher level. I'm not saying that the Mountain West wasn't good, but … "

Oh, go ahead. Say it. We all know it's true.

But Spielman backed away from saying anything more negative about the MWC.

"I think the Mountain West is really good, but year in, year out, when you're talking about playing USC and Oregon, it's really going to be a great opportunity," he said. "Not only for the players and the coaches, but for the fans.

"For fans of college football, this is awesome."

And Spielman expects Utah to hit the ground running when it begins Pac-12 play.

"I think they'll be very competitive," he said. "I think that [Utah coach] Kyle Whittingham does a great job. I think it's a perfect fit for them. Obviously, they can compete with those schools.

"Now, whether they can compete with them on a weekly basis, that's the only question out there. I have no doubt that they can."

But, to his way of thinking, independence is going to be somewhat more iffy for BYU.

"I think it's a brave new world out there, so good luck with that," Spielman said. "Notre Dame is making it work and has made it work for a while, but I think eventually the money's going to be too good, and the opportunity's going to be too good. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think there'll be independents five years from now."

He does think independence is an improvement for the Cougars.

"I think it's good," Spielman said. "Probably better than where they were [in the MWC]. But I think that eventually we are going to have four super conferences. I don't know how far away, but I do think it will happen.

"Look at the Big 12. I mean, that's hanging on by a thread."

Spielman, who played at Ohio State of the Big Ten, envisions four 16-team conferences built around the current Pac-12, SEC, Big Ten and ACC. Which, quite honestly, doesn't make complete sense — there are currently 66 teams in the six BCS conferences (67 when TCU joins the Big East in 2012), plus Notre Dame, which would require at least four to drop out of big-time college football.

Five, if Spielman is right when he says "eventually [BYU] will just end up joining [another conference]."

Although, clearly, the ESPN analyst hasn't kept up with everything that's been going in the past couple of years.

"BYU will probably end up in what is now the Pac-12 when it's all said and done," he said. "We'll see."

That seems about as likely as Utah deciding to rejoin the Mountain West Conference.

Scott D. Pierce covers television for The Salt Lake Tribune. Email him at spierce@sltrib.com; follow him on Twitter @ScottDPierce; read his blog at sltrib.com/blogs/tv.