This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2011, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.
More than two and a half months have passed since the NFL entered a lockout. Lawsuits, court rulings, heartfelt pleas, dramatic pronouncements and insulting tweets have followed as the league and the National Football League Players Association (NFLPA) remain in a stalemate.
Big picture, it appears little has changed. Commissioner Roger Goodell said that he is close to canceling preseason games, while teams have cut into pension funds and threatened furloughs. But the NFL is technically no closer to kicking off than it was March 12, when the game was officially paused.
Recent legal proceedings have clearly favored owners, though, providing the league with judicial leverage and erasing initial gains given to players. At the same time, the NFL's growing advantage in the courtroom is being viewed with wide eyes by the NBA, which sees the NFL's case as an ongoing experiment.
Basketball's collective bargaining agreement (CBA) expires June 30. While the NFL waits, the NBA watches.
"Both sides are very aware of what's happened in the NFL and the disruption to their business caused by the work stoppage," NBA deputy commissioner Adam Silver said. "And I think I can speak for both the owners and the union in that we want to avoid, at all costs, entering into any type of work stoppage or, certainly, a lockout."
Sports labor lawyers and analysts say that is almost impossible. Too much remains at stake with too little time, and National Basketball Players Association (NBPA) executive director Billy Hunter acknowledged last week that no progress has been made during recent talks.
"With any negotiation, you start out asking for the moon and the stars," said Larry Coon, a CBA expert and ESPN.com contributor. "Then you start orchestrating and working your way somewhat to the middle. But for [the owners], strategically, they want to get the players where they're hurting — which happens around Nov. 15, when they lose their first paycheck."
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First punch • Gary Roberts, dean and professor at the Indiana University Law School-Indianapolis, predicts a more immediate setback for the NBPA.
Roberts said there is "no question" that the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 8th Circuit in St. Louis will again rule in the NFL's favor after a Friday hearing, preserving owners' legal rights to a lockout, while possibly using language that advocates for the dismissal of the NFLPA's antitrust lawsuit.
Even if the antitrust case remains in play, a continuation of the lockout would be a damaging blow to the NBPA, and the punch could arrive before an NBA lockout even begins.
"Neither side is going to make any concessions until we see how the NFL lawsuit plays out," said Roberts, who also serves as the NFL Network's on-air legal analyst.
The NBPA is stronger and more prepared than it was during the 1998-99 lockout. Hunter has refused to cave in and accept a repressive deal, while NBPA president Derek Fisher is a proud, captivating leader.
But NFL players have already lost legal footing, despite the league raking in $9 billion in annual revenue. How will it look in court when the NBPA presents its case, Roberts wonders, after the NBA claims it lost $300 million this season and 22 of 30 teams are running a deficit?
"I think the majority of the NBA owners are perfectly happy to shut down for a year or two because that means they won't lose $25 million a year," Roberts said.
"The NBA and the NFL are in very different circumstances."
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Long battle • Roberts believes the NFL will ultimately win its litigation, with new CBA talks peaking in August, allowing the league to possibly play a full regular-season schedule in 2011-12.
Coon predicts the NBA lockout could stretch through January, though, with owners eventually breaking players by luring in lesser-name athletes with the promise of much-needed paychecks.
And the normally optimistic Silver found common ground with Roberts, acknowledging that the NBA's worst-case scenario would mirror the NHL's lost 2004-05 season.
"We have seven NBA teams that also have interests in NHL teams," Silver said. "And what we are hearing from those NHL owners is that, by and large, their new system is working in an economic and competitive standpoint in a way the current NBA system is not."
While the NFL's main fight is based on splitting a large pile of cash, the NBA's battles are more complicated and dig much deeper.
Pro basketball's soft salary cap favors large-market teams; guaranteed contracts are a boon to some and a plague to many; star players have little incentive to remain with the small-market clubs that drafted them; and everything from revenue sharing to athletes' profits are at stake. A steadfast league wants a 50-50 split.
A united NBPA wants at least status quo.
"The biggest damning piece of evidence right now is that the NBA is really doing great," said Patrick Rishe, a sports-business professor at Webster University in St. Louis and director of Sportsimpacts, which analyzes the economic impact of sports events, teams and athletic departments. "The ratings for the postseason are fantastic. There's been a lot more enthusiasm and excitement for the sport in the last couple of years. And yet, they've seen the teams' profits dwindle. That's not a good combination."
But it's currently working in the league's favor, and a likely lockout is just 32 days away.
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Tribune managing editor Michael A. Anastasi contributed to this report. —
Key dates
June 3 • U.S. Court of Appeals for the 8th Circuit in St. Louis will hold a hearing to decide whether the NFL lockout should remain in place.
June 30 • NBA collective bargaining agreement (CBA) expires.
July 1 • NBA lockout will begin if a new CBA isn't reached.
Early July • 8th Circuit is expected to rule on NFL lockout.
Domino effect
Gary Roberts, a professor at the Indiana University Law School-Indianapolis, said there is "no question" the 8th Circuit will rule in the NFL's favor. If this occurs, Roberts believes that an NBA lockout is inevitable.
Following suit
Roberts predicts that the National Basketball Players Association will soon follow the path of the National Football League Players Association in decertifying and filing an antitrust lawsuit against the NBA during a lockout. However, Roberts believes that basketball players face a much tougher road than football players, who have already suffered legal setbacks during the NFL lockout. And if the NFLPA's antitrust suit is dismissed? "It would no longer be an OK tactic for the union to flip the light switch and say, 'Look, we're not a union anymore and now we can bring an antitrust suit,' " Roberts said. "If they can't do that, then that puts a lot of pressure on the union in basketball to negotiate a deal. They don't, [and] they're going to lose the whole season."