Fuel price hike looms for Indonesia’s new leader
Jakarta, Indonesia • The first item on the to-do list of Indonesia’s president-elect is one that successive leaders have struggled with, and could be his toughest: how to wean the country off fuel subsidies that make gasoline almost as cheap as bottled water.
Each year the subsidies cost Indonesia billions of dollars that economists agree would be better spent on creating jobs and building badly needed roads, schools and hospitals in Southeast Asia’s largest economy.
The problem for President-elect Joko Widodo, publicly known as Jokowi, is that Indonesians are accustomed to some of the cheapest fuel in the world. The subsidies also indirectly keep the cost of public transport and basic foodstuffs affordable, an important consideration in a country where about half of the 240 million people survive on $2 a day.
Indonesia’s anti-graft commission says it is investigating the country’s minister of energy and mines for alleged corruption.
The Corruption Eradication Commission said Wednesday that Jero Wacik is suspected of extorting about $840,000 from mining companies from 2011 to 2013.
Wacik, a senior official with the ruling Democratic Party, is the third Cabinet minister in President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s government to be named a corruption suspect.
In July, the anti-graft court sentenced a former sports minister to four years in prison for corruption related to the construction of a sports complex.
In May, the anti-graft agency accused the minister of religious affairs of mismanaging expenses for the hajj pilgrimage.
Endemic graft in Indonesia has been blamed for deterring foreign investment. Transparency International regularly lists the country among the most corrupt nations.
Widodo had been hoping for help from outgoing President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who could have cut the subsidies before leaving office on October 20, deflecting some of the public anger and political heat away from the new leader. But Yudhoyono, who raised prices last year by 44 percent after delaying for five years, declined Widodo’s request, saying he had "taken pity" on the people.
Widodo, who won the election convincingly after a campaign that stressed his working class roots and record of progressive leadership as Jakarta governor, has pledged to reduce the subsidy bill, even as members of his own political party urge him not to. They fear more expensive fuel will cut short any honeymoon period.
"I am ready to be unpopular," Widodo said last week. "We will reduce the fuel subsidies and divert the money to fund more productive projects, seeds for farmers, pesticides, and diesel fuel for fishermen and others sector that need subsidies more. We have to begin to change."
Indonesia was once an oil exporter and OPEC member, but now imports crude oil and refined fuel to meet demand. It pays overseas fuel suppliers around 98 cents per liter, but sells it to Indonesians at 55 cents per liter. That’s close to the cost of a liter of bottled drinking water, which range in price from 25 to 85 cents, depending on brand and outlet.
The fuel subsidy bill last year totaled $16.5 billion, which was 20 percent of the government budget. That will rise further this year if the world oil price increases.
Cheap fuel also encourages consumption as can be seen in the still-widespread habit of Indonesian drivers to run their engines for several minutes to "warm up" their car before departing on a journey. Fuel imports add to the country’s trade deficit, leaving the rupiah vulnerable to sudden and potentially destabilizing weakness.
Cutting subsidies would send a signal to financial markets and investors that the Jokowi administration is committed to getting government finances in order in a country where economic growth has fallen to its lowest level in almost five years.
In recent weeks the government’s mismanagement of the fuel situation has been on display. State-owned oil company Pertamina began limiting supplies to fuel stations, fearing it would fun out of subsidized fuel. This sparked panic buying and led to hours-long queues on Java island, home to more than half of the country’s people.
Faisal Basri, a former economic adviser to Yudhoyono, described the subsidized fuel policy as a "cancer that risks spreading to the whole economy." He said that two 20 percent hikes, one in September and one early next year, would be enough to help end the dependence.
"If we do that, then we can move full speed ahead in 2016 and escape from this myth" of the need for subsidized fuel, he wrote in a recent blog post.
The Yudhoyono government tried to create public awareness that that the main beneficiaries of cheap fuel are the middle and upper classes, who drive cars and have large houses with multiple air conditioners and appliances. It gave cash handouts to the poor to try and cushion the blow of subsidy reductions, something that Widodo is also committed to doing.
But the effectiveness of that message was clouded by corruption scandals involving government officials and the wasteful spending of the political elite in general. Any leader who cuts subsidies is painted by most political parties and much of the media as being anti-poor. There is also pressure from the growing numbers of first-time car and motorbike owners.
In 1998, former dictator Suharto cut subsidies as a condition of receiving a bailout fund from the International Monetary Fund. The move sparked rioting that ultimately led to his downfall. Protests and street unrest have erupted each time a government has cut subsidies since then.