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Argentina’s last debt card is a doomsday scenario
Repayments » Analysts doubt country will succeed in avoiding debts to U.S. hedge funds.


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The main pro of this approach is that defying the so-called "vulture funds" is a highly popular idea among Argentines.

Argentina’s law firm advised Fernandez that her best option for leverage was to default first and negotiate later. So even if it doesn’t work, it could give a president intent on showing the global financial system who’s boss in Argentina a short-term boost as she begins the last 500 days of her eight years in office.

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And if Singer believes she’s not bluffing, he might just offer a face-saving deal she can carry back from the edge of the abyss.

The main con? Few people who understand bond markets think it has any chance of success.

About 85 percent of the creditors would have to approve it, said Matias Carugati, an economist for Buenos Aires-based consultancy, Management & Fit, and many investment funds are barred from making such a change. Others would be wary of relying on Argentine law.

Consequences:

Argentina is already suffering through a recession, rising poverty and crime, reflecting an economy that has stopped growing. Its consumers are already spooked by currency controls, lack of credit, spiraling inflation and other results of the government’s refusal to settle accounts with foreign lenders.

A disorderly default would be dire, making credit disappear and costing jobs, said Fausto Spotorno, an economist with Orlando Ferreres & Asociados.

"I’m not so much worried for me as for my kids. I’m going to be dead already and Argentina will still be paying what it has owed for years," said Umma Sanchez, a 37-year-old psychologist. "We will never be a normal country, and that we owe to the people who govern us."


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