While the company has six weeks to seek other bids, Pacific Crest Securities said investors should be happy to get the $9 a share that Fairfax is offering. Chief Executive Officer Thorsten Heins, who took over in January 2012, didn't publicly disclose the company was for sale until last month after almost a year of canvassing potential buyers. Now, BlackBerry has posted a string of quarterly sales declines and lost almost $79 billion in market value as it fell behind Apple and Google. Last week, BlackBerry said it will cut a third of its workforce and take a writedown of as much as $960 million.
"It is being valued like a broken company," Anil Doradla, a Chicago-based analyst at William Blair & Co., said in a phone interview. "They had a chance to potentially execute on an M&A deal when these guys were doing better. So by the time Thorsten Heins came on board, I think it was too little, too late."
Including the $2.8 billion of cash and equivalents BlackBerry had in the most recent quarter, the proposal values the company at about $1.9 billion. The group led by Toronto- based Fairfax is still seeking financing for the offer, which is subject to due diligence and further negotiation.
Fairfax owns about 10 percent of BlackBerry's common stock. BlackBerry didn't name the other members of the takeover consortium. Fairfax CEO Prem Watsa said in an interview that the consortium at this point doesn't include Mike Lazaridis, inventor of the BlackBerry and former co-CEO of the company, who has a 5.7 percent stake in the company.
Lisette Kwong, a spokeswoman for BlackBerry, declined to comment on the Fairfax bid and reiterated that the deal includes a go-shop period that may reveal other offers.
"Our offer represents compelling value, particularly by comparison to recent transactions like Microsoft and Nokia," Paul Rivett, president of Fairfax, said in an e-mailed response to questions.
Microsoft, the world's largest software company, agreed this month to buy Nokia's handset business for $7.2 billion. Microsoft paid 0.42 times Nokia's trailing 12-month revenue from devices and services, according to data compiled by Bloomberg that include net debt.
When BlackBerry shares were halted yesterday before news of the deal, the stock's 20-day average price was $10.31, higher than Fairfax's $9-a-share cash bid. The offer is a 3.2 percent premium to the closing price on Sept. 20, when the stock plunged after BlackBerry said it's cutting 4,500 jobs and will record an inventory writedown, mostly for the new Z10 touch-screen devices.
The transaction would value BlackBerry at an 83 percent discount to the $11.3 billion of revenue it generated in the past 12 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That's a lower sales multiple than any other technology or telecommunications takeover struck in North America for more than $1 billion, the data show.
Those deals had a median book value multiple of 5.3, while the BlackBerry buyout would be for just 0.2, the data show.
For shareholders, a deal still may be wishful thinking because there isn't yet a firm offer on the table, MKM Partners's Michael Genovese said. There's a chance that Fairfax will reduce its offer after scrutinizing BlackBerry's books, and other bidders are unlikely to step in, the Stamford, Connecticut-based analyst said.
He values BlackBerry at $7 a share, excluding its cash, which the company is projected to burn through in the coming quarters.
"If you own the stock, your upside is capped at $9," Genovese said in a phone interview. "This is not yet a real deal. Hopefully, for people who are long BlackBerry, it will result in one, but that's very far from certain."
BlackBerry's dimming prospects led the company to form a special board committee last month to evaluate all possible options, including joint ventures, partnerships or an outright sale.
That announcement followed almost a year of bankers from JPMorgan Chase and RBC Capital Markets quietly contacting possible bidders, said two people with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be named because the talks were private. The advisers found little interest in buying the whole company, the people said at the time.
It's unlikely that other suitors will emerge with higher offers for BlackBerry, according to Doradla of William Blair.