A pair of Utah economists are dismissing federal job-growth figures that indicate the Utah economy slowed in the fourth quarter of 2010, saying the information is outdated.
Job growth, a key gauge of whether the economy is recovering from the recession, slacked off to 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter from 1 percent three months earlier, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
The declines were measured against the same quarters of 2009, the FDIC said.
Most of the easing was in the private service-producing sector, which accounted for 66 percent of all jobs in the state. Growth in that area slowed to 1 percent from 1.9 percent in the third quarter, the FDIC said.
Mark Knold, chief economist for the Utah Department of Workforce Services, said final figures gathered by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indicate year-over-year job growth commenced last July and proceeded slowly — but more or less steadily — through September.
Growth figures for the rest of the year and for January 2011 are estimates that come from the BLS. They, too, show growth in all but one month. Although the monthly growth rates aren't strong, they are moving in the right direction, Knold said.
"We had lethargic growth in the third quarter. It ticked up a little bit higher in the fourth quarter, but I would still put it in the category of lethargic," Knold said.
"Anything below 2 percent is sluggish growth in this economy. We need high amounts of growth to bring people back to work in large quantities."
FDIC spokesman Greg Hernandez said his agency also uses BLS data to make its estimate of job growth. But unlike the Department of Workforce Services, the FDIC's data aren't adjusted to remove seasonal factors that may affect the pace of growth. Nonseasonally adjusted data are often used to reflect current conditions. Seasonally adjusted statistics are used for longer-term comparisons.
Like Knold, Jim Wood, who heads the University of Utah's Bureau of Economic and Business Research, hasn't seen a deceleration in job growth.
The extension of the Bush-era tax cuts and the 2 percent Social Security tax break for 2011 are buttressing growth nationally and in Utah, Wood said.
"I think what we've had is improving economic indicators," he said.
pbeebe@sltrib.com —
Did jobs expand or contract in Utah during the fourth quarter versus the third?
They increased, says the Utah Department of Workforce Services:
July • 0.3 percent (actual)
August • 0.3 percent (actual)
September • 0.4 percent (actual)
October • 0.6 percent (estimate)
November • 0.8 percent (estimate)
December • 0.7 percent (estimate)
January • 1.5 percent (estimate)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
No, according to the FDIC
Third quarter • 1 percent
Fourth quarter • 0.8 percent
All percentages are year-over-year
Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
