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Economic growth the rest of this year and early next year will weaken, to less than 3 percent. From January through May, the economy grew at roughly a 3.5 percent pace.

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The unemployment rate will be no lower at the end of the year than it is now — 9.5 percent. A majority think it will be 2015 or later before the rate falls to a historically normal 5 percent.

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State budget shortfalls pose a “significant” or “severe” risk to the national economy. The loss of tax revenue has forced state and local governments to cut services and lay off workers.

The economists have turned more pessimistic since the recovery hit turbulence in May. Europe’s debt crisis sent tremors through Wall Street, causing stocks to tumble and raising doubts about the durability of the rebound.

Since then, businesses have been slow to step up hiring. Americans’ confidence in the economy has declined, leading shoppers to reduce spending. And the housing market has weakened further with the end of a homebuyer tax credit that had buoyed sales earlier this year.

Consumers aren’t leading this rebound, as they usually do, despite ultra-low borrowing costs. Their spending growth will weaken in the second half of this year and strengthen only slightly next year, a majority of economists said.

The tight job market, scant pay raises and drooping home values are forcing others, too, to spend less and save more. Americans saved 4.2 percent of their disposable income last year. That was the highest level since 1998. Economists expect roughly the same level of saving this year and next.

That’s why growth of less than 3 percent is forecast into 2011. And weak growth helps explain why unemployment is likely to stay high. It takes about 3 percent growth just to create enough jobs to keep pace with the population increase.

Tribune reporter Lesley Mitchell contributed to this story.