Predictions: This year, Oscar will look back | The Salt Lake Tribune
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In this film publicity image released by The Weinstein Company, Berenice Bejo portrays Peppy Miller, left, and Malcolm McDowell portrays The Butler in a scene from "The Artist." (AP Photo/The Weinstein Company)
Predictions: This year, Oscar will look back

Academy Awards » Best Picture nominees take trips to the past, from Big Bang to 9/11.

First Published Feb 22 2012 05:06 pm • Last Updated Feb 24 2012 04:20 pm

The Academy Awards are always about looking back — usually just to the best movies of the year before.

But this year’s Best Picture nominees put the focus back decades, or even millennia.

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Oscars on TV

The 84th annual Academy Awards, broadcast live from Hollywood’s Kodak Theatre and hosted by Billy Crystal, will begin at 6:30 p.m. Mountain time on ABC — KTVX, Channel 4, in Salt Lake City.

“Oscars Red Carpet Live,” a 90-minute special featuring interviews and fashion with the arriving stars, begins at 5 p.m. on the same channel.

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The top contenders for this year’s Oscars — Martin Scorsese’s childhood drama "Hugo" with 11 nominations, and Michel Hazanavicius’ silent Hollywood comedy "The Artist" with 10 nods — both take us back to the early days of film magic, whether the silent era of the turn of the last century or the birth of the talkies in the 1920s.

Woody Allen’s surprisingly successful "Midnight in Paris" takes Owen Wilson’s character back to the Jazz Age of Paris, to rub elbows with F. Scott Fitzgerald and Ernest Hemingway. "The Help," the most commercially successful of the nine Best Picture nominees, takes place in Mississippi in the 1960s, just as the civil-rights movement was beginning. Steven Spielberg’s epic "War Horse" relives the horrors of World War I. Terrence Malick’s "The Tree of Life" takes the verrrrry long view, going back to The Big Bang and the creation of the cosmos — as well as life in 1950s suburbia.

Even two relatively modern entries, the business-of-baseball tale "Moneyball" and the 9/11 drama "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close," are set at the start of the last decade.

Only one of the nine Best Picture nominees is set in the here and now — Alexander Payne’s comedy-drama of grief and loss, "The Descendants."

What movies, performers and filmmakers will take home the famous golden statuettes on Sunday night? The following are my annual fearless predictions in the major categories. (My predictions in the minor categories can be found on my blog: sltrib.com/blogs/moviecricket.) Here’s one rule: When Hollywood gets a chance to celebrate itself, it takes it.

Best actor

Nominees » Demián Bichir, "A Better Life"; George Clooney, "The Descendants"; Jean Dujardin, "The Artist"; Gary Oldman, "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"; Brad Pitt, "Moneyball."

Who will win » It’s between Clooney, playing against type as a middle-aged dad, and Dujardin, so charming as a silent movie star falling on hard times. "The Artist" has the momentum behind it, so expect Dujardin to win.

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Who should win » Dujardin’s performance was charming and daring, but the best of these five is Oldman’s subtle reading of the spymaster George Smiley in John LeCarré’s classic.

Best actress

Nominees » Glenn Close, "Albert Nobbs"; Viola Davis, "The Help"; Rooney Mara, "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo"; Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady"; Michelle Williams, "My Week With Marilyn."

Who will win » The race is between Davis and Streep (who, interestingly enough, were co-stars three years ago in "Doubt"). Academy voters may feel that Streep has been honored enough (forgetting the fact that her last Oscar, for "Sophie’s Choice," was 29 years ago). That, along with much respect for Davis’ work, will likely give Davis the Oscar.

Who should win » All good performances here, but Williams was amazing as she captured the essence of Marilyn Monroe’s public persona and private pain.

Best supporting actor

Nominees » Kenneth Branagh, "My Week With Marilyn"; Jonah Hill, "Moneyball"; Nick Nolte, "Warrior"; Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"; Max Von Sydow, "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close."

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