Population growth over the past decade should give more legislative seats to northern Utah County, southwestern Salt Lake County and Washington and Davis counties, a panel of leaders involved in redistricting said on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, areas expected to lose seats include the rest of Salt Lake County, Weber County and the Provo-Orem area.

The Utah Foundation, a political research group, hosted a forum Tuesday to preview redistricting this year — including looking at likely winners and losers and some big questions that must soon be answered. Hearings on redistricting are expected all summer, and the Legislature is expected to adopt a final plan in a special session later this year.

Rep. Ken Sumsion, R-American Fork, who was named Tuesday as the House chairman of a joint legislative redistricting committee, noted the Constitution requires each person to have one vote, and requires districts that are roughly equal in population.

He said that his northern Utah County district has grown so much since the last census that it now has three times more residents than the average House district — meaning its residents' votes count only about a third as much.

Sumsion said math shows that the three House seats now in fast-growing northern Utah County should become five seats. He said also-fast-growing southwestern Salt Lake County should by simple math pick up 1.6 seats, and Washington County should pick up half a seat as lines are redrawn.

He said 15 districts in Salt Lake County that had slower-than-average growth should lose a combined 2.3 seats; the Provo-Orem area should lose a seat; and six current seats that had slow growth in Weber County should lose a seat.

However, John Cannon, managing policy analyst for the Office of Legislative Research and General Counsel, noted that the Utah Constitution allows the Utah House to have up to 87 seats instead of the current 75.

He said someone usually pushes to expand he number of seats to help prevent an incumbent from losing a seat. (The Utah Constitution requires exactly 29 state Senate seats).

One of the biggest questions lawmakers must address is how to draw U.S. House districts. Utah won a new, fourth seat this year.

Political columnist and lobbyist LaVarr Webb told the group some lawmakers are looking at creating a doughnut hole district consisting of Democratic areas in Salt Lake and Summit counties to be a safe seat for Rep. Jim Matheson, D-Utah. That move would also result in three safe Republican seats elsewhere.

He noted some are looking instead at a "layered cake" approach that would create four GOP-leaning districts, but which may be competitive enough for a Democrat to win.

Webb said that state Rep. David Clark, R-Santa Clara, is pushing for a southern Utah U.S. House seat, which he may seek. And state Rep. Carl Wimmer, R-Herriman, is pushing for one with a base in southwestern Salt Lake County, which he may seek.

Sumsion and Senate Minority Leader Ross Romero, D-Salt Lake City, said lawmakers should try to keep cities and other political subdivisions together as much as possible — but also warned that it may be impossible.

Sumsion said, for example, that adjacent Eagle Mountain and Saratoga Springs in Utah County would probably like to be in the same state House district. But their population is so large that at least one of them would have to be divided between districts.

Cannon also warned that the last seats drawn are often ugly, no matter what. For example, Tooele County currently has part of six legislative districts — but only one of the six lawmakers actually lives in that county, and one lives 200 miles away.

"There will be another 'Tooele County' somewhere in the state this time," Cannon warned. "You can always make a perfect district wherever you start … wherever you end it's very, very difficult" to have districts that are compact and follow political boundaries closely. —

Redistricting

P Based on numbers from the U.S. census, lawmakers this year will redraw political maps to equalize population in each legislative and U.S. House district. Population growth in southwestern Salt Lake and northern Utah counties means more representatives for those areas.