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Washington • A speculative poll shows Utah Republicans are evenly split between Sen. Orrin Hatch and his potential challenger, Rep. Jason Chaffetz, in the state's 2012 Senate contest.
The pivotal state convention may remain more than a year away, but that didn't stop UtahPolicy.com from surveying registered Republicans last week about what could turn into one of the nation's hottest political battles.
The site, run by the Exoro lobbying and consulting shop, found roughly 42 percent of Republican voters favored each candidate with 15 percent undecided. The poll, conducted by Opinionology, involved 348 registered Republican voters last week. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
In a separate question, this time of 600 likely voters, the UtahPolicy poll found that 31 percent wanted Hatch to win his seventh term, while 54 percent were ready for a new face. Once again, 15 percent were undecided.
The poll underlines the uneasy path Hatch has toward re-election, but the senator's campaign staff says they are not blown away by the results.
"Polls right now are interesting, but I'm not sure they really mean a lot," said Hatch's campaign manager Dave Hansen. "Whatever the numbers are, you always wish you were higher."
Hansen said the results are not surprising particularly after the 2010 midterm elections where an anti-incumbent, anti-Washington wave knocked out a number of incumbents, including Utah Sen. Bob Bennett.
"There is still a lot of that feeling out there," he said. "The senator and the campaign need to make their case over the next several months."
Chaffetz said the only poll that matters will take place at the Republican convention in 2012, "but it is certainly flattering to be so seriously considered.
"It is very humbling when you have such great support for someone who isn't even in the race," he said.
Chaffetz continues to consider a challenge to Hatch, weighing whether it makes sense to seek the statewide spot or attempt to stay in his congressional district and climb through the ranks of House Republicans.
"My experience is exceeding all of my expectations," said Chaffetz, noting he is a subcommittee chairman in only his second term. "It is pretty hard to walk away from all of that. My job is to be the most influential I can for the state of Utah."
He said whomever challenges Hatch will focus on two issues: the senator's longevity, since he was first elected in 1976, and his voting record.
"When he gets opposition, I think it is going to be a very humbling outcome for the senator," Chaffetz said.